Year of the Mid-Major!... Alright, Maybe Not

Yes, those are the faces of mid-major basketball. A 9-year-old and a poltergeist. But that's what makes them perfect underdogs. They just look like they should lose to the Goliaths of college hoops. Unfortunately for Maryland last year and maybe UNC tonight, they don't back down in the face of, you know, regular-looking programs. Tonight's UNC-Davidson game is a nice early-season look at how mid-major stacks up against the big boys and a chance for the Wildcats to maybe set a tone for March.

That's where the problem starts. Even though the Atlantic Sun is ravaging our preseason tourneys and Southern Illinois, Gonzaga, Butler, VCU and Davidson should be better than ever and hovering in or around the top 25 like few mid-majors have before, the well might run dry after that.

Now this all depends on what your idea of "success" is for mid-majors. Some think that one or two mid-majors making deep tournament runs is all you need, but I tend to look at how many bids the non-BCS conferences get and how many times Billy Packer's bursts a blood vessel on Selection Sunday. You know, important shit. And the bottom line for this year is, no matter how deep those underdogs go, there could be an overwhelming amount of BCS teams in the tourney this year.
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The Missouri Valley is off to a rough start. As Garry Parrish notes in his aptly named notebook, Bradley and Missouri State, picked 2nd and 3rd in the Valley, behind Southern Illinois, had some nasty losses early. The gatekeeper of all that is mid-major, Kyle Whelliston, thinks a league that got an amazing four in 2006, might be a one-bid league this year and the MVC's commish doesn't necessarily disagree.

Whelliston's outstanding piece goes on to look at the other mid-major conferences to try and find some more bids. The CAA, WAC and A-10 are set up to be this year's torchbearers. But besides George Mason and VCU in the Colonial, I'm not seeing a lot of promise. Drexel and Old Dominion lost key players to graduation. UNC-Wilmington will be good with TJ Carter back, but making a leap from 7-22 to the NCAAs isn't likely. The WAC has some intriguing teams but New Mexico State is 0-2 and Nevada lost Fazekas, Sessions and then a season-opener to Central Florida. Utah State looks like the WAC's best bet but unless Fresno steps up, that too could be a one-bid league. The usually reliable Mountain West is down this year and I don't see anyone in the WCC or Horizon joining Gonzaga and Butler.

The A-10 might be mid-major's best shot. St. Joe's almost knocked off my Orange last night and St. Louis gave a decent showing at Pitt. Xavier should be good but lost to Miami (OH) the other night. Dayton, Fordham and maybe Charlotte should at least provide a nice RPI for the top dogs. Joe Lunardi, a man who probably puts his choice of salad dressing in bracket form (but here's the thing, he picks Thousand Island every time), has the MVC, A-10, CAA, MWC and WAC getting 2 each, the rest going to BCS schools (Big East 8, Pac-10 7, ACC 6).

So don't get your panties in a bunch if Davidson hangs with UNC tonight (unlikely by the way) or Southern Illinois stays in the top 10 all year. We'll see the, by now, usual mid-major suspects in the Sweet 16 but it's going to be mostly big programs and big names come March. Alas, Billy Packer's head will stay perilously unexploded.