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Monday, March 17, 2008

The 2008 Pod Of Doom, Pod of Dullness

Yes Bo, I have the same reaction when I look at your portion of my bracket.

OK, so I've finally started digging into this here bracket and filling out the games. I tend to fill out my bracket in groups of four. Taking each first and second round site and treating that as an individual tournament and moving on from there. These are called "pods" in Bracketspeak and they are the seemingly retarded idea of the NCAA to "limit" travel time for schools. Of course, like most pointless things the NCAA tries, this doesn't work and you've got Butler traveling to Alabama to play South Alabama or Gonzaga going to Raleigh to play Davidson. On top of that, there always seems to be one or two pods that are impossible to pick. These generally end up being very costly in the end because you have a team capable of making a Final Four stuck with a difficult first or second round game. One false move and you're finished.

Last year that pod was the one with Louisville and Texas A & M as the No. 6 and No. 3 seed respectively. I liked Louisville a lot but I loved A & M. I picked A & M to beat the Cardinals and go to the Final Four, knowing my bracket could be finished in Round 2. Thanks to some Edgar Sosa missed free throws I narrowly escaped this fate, but was doomed by a missed lay-up by Acie Law down the stretch of the Aggies Sweet 16 game with Memphis.

On the flip side, there are some pods that are impossible to pick because the teams involved are so bad. This generally includes teams that were moved up or down on the S Curve or struggled down the stretch. Usually these teams are very boring, have a pretty ambiguous identity and few household names. Last year it was the pod where No. 6 Notre Dame played No. 11 Winthrop and No. 3 Oregon played No. 14 Miami (Ohio) in the Midwest region. I though the Redbirds had a good chance to beat Oregon in that game and they almost did, losing by two. I was pretty confident Winthrop could pull an upset too, and they did. So I had all sorts of different combos in my different pools, none of which had Oregon coming out of that group. Worse yet, I was dead set on Florida, which was in the top half of that region, being the champ so it didn't even really matter who would come out of that portion; they would just be crushed by the Gators. But you still lose a lot of points. So when the Ducks made the Elite Eight after barely avoiding a massive upset, I got screwed.

So you get the idea. I've poured over the field this year and here are my two pods that could ultimately decide your fate.

Pod Of Doom:
Midwest Region, No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Kansas State; No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Cal State Fullerton- This one is being played in Omaha so none of the teams really have a clear-cut advantage, save for maybe KSU. Wisconsin is getting a lot of hype to come out of the bottom of that region but have probably the toughest No. 14 for them to match up with. Fullerton plays really fast and shoots the ball well. Wisconsin plays really slow and could struggle to score consistently in a high possession game. If Fullerton can speed up the game, it has a chance. Then you got USC-Kansas State which has the potential to make all the numbers irrelevant and turn into an AAU game. You've gotta like Tim Floyd's team in this game -- they killed Kevin Durant's Texas team in the NCAAs last year -- but when you have the best player like the Wildcats do, there is no telling what can happen. If it is Wisconsin-USC in the second round, that game is just as tough to predict. Both teams play great defense and like a half-court game. USC has much more talent but the more experienced Badgers play with a poise the young Trojans don't always have.

To make matters worse, the winner of this pod will play the winner of the Gonzaga- Davidson- Georgetown- UMBC pod, which isn't terrible, but still would not be a safe pick against Wisconsin or USC. So you have three teams -- USC, Wisconsin and KSU -- capable of making an Elite Eight run, but also very capable of losing in the first round.

The Reluctant Pick: USC

Others Considered
East: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 George Mason; No. 4 Washington St. vs. No. 13 Winthrop
West: No. 5 Drake vs. No. 12 Western Kentucky; No. 4 UConn vs. No. 13 San Diego
South: No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Kentucky; No. 3 Stanford vs. No. 14 Cornell

Pod of Dullness:
West, No. 6 Purdue vs. No. 11 Baylor; No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 14 Georgia- I suppose "dullness" isn't quite the right word for this one with some exciting teams there, but certainly none of these teams will be winning a second weekend game. The winner of this plays Duke, West Virginia or Arizona, none of which should lose to any of these teams (if the Wildcats or Mountaineers win two games, chances are they are playing well enough to be favored against Xavier or Purdue). With the exception of Georgia, all three of these teams played pretty poorly in their respective conference tournaments. Xavier lost to St. Joe's in the semis, Baylor lost in the first round to Colorado and Purdue lost to Illinois in the quarters. The Boilermakers and Bears have been pretty inconsistent this year and their game will probably just come down to which team is hoisting threes at a more accurate rate and who will prevail in the battle between Baylor's great guards and Purdue's great ball pressure. And as good as the Musketeers have been, they are playing Georgia and the Bulldogs' incredible momentum, chip-on-the-shoulder and quite possibly God himself.

Depending on your pool's format, there are some potentially make-or-break points riding on this teeming pile of mediocrity that will take place in DC, even if any further victories are a long shot (full disclosure: I am attending the second round games in DC Saturday and am none too pleased to be attending this year's Pod of Dullness; all angst will be taken out on Duke fans).

The Reluctant Pick: Xavier

Others Considered

Midwest: No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Villanova; No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Siena;
South: No. 1 Memphis vs. No. 16 Texas-Arlington; No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Oregon

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