Monday's Picks: CAA, MAAC, West Coast and Southern Conference Championships

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: If Illinois State had just hung tough with Drake and lost by like 12 or so, the Redbirds would probably still feel pretty safe about getting an at-large bid. But instead, in a performance that probably earned the Bulldogs thousands of Sweet 16 trips in brackets across the country (and was one of the most efficient beatdowns I've seen this year), Illinois State lost by 30 to Drake (-2.5) and is suddenly a conference runner-up that got three shots at its league champion and blew them all. I know margin of victory isn't supposed to be a big deal but when you are barely every on TV and need to impress a selection committee, losing by 30 must leave a bad taste. On the other hand, when Love The Drake references start flying around your office in a couple weeks because of that game, don't forget who loved the Drake way back in mid-January. That was an incredible performance yesterday.

Metro-Atlantic, Rider vs. Siena (-3)- I'm getting the sense that Vegas has no idea how to handicap some of these conference tourney games. I suppose there is no reason to put too much time into it because anyone betting on the MAAC final will probably be dead in a few months anyway. I swear every game I've seen has been a 2.5 spread. Anyway these are the top two teams in the league and both are much better than your usual MAAC champ. Whichever team wins is going to scare some No. 3 seed in a couple weeks. Initially this looked like it would be a very high-scoring, very fast-paced game between two teams with very good athletes, but it might be toned down a bit with this being the third game in three nights and both teams sporting short benches. This one is worth watching for no other reason that Rider's Jason Thompson, a 7-footer that will be in the NBA soon. In the semis he played every minute, dropping 32 and 18 against Marist (he's average 20 and 12 on the year). The Saints lack the size to keep Thompson in check but have a three-headed monster of mismatches elsewhere. Edwin Ubiles, Kenny Hasbrouck and Alex Franklin are as good of a Big Three in mid-major basketball and lead a very efficient, very skilled offense that has won at Stanford this season. The teams split two regular season meetings, winning on each others courts and I think Thompson will go off. But you win these type of games by making the least mistakes and the surehanded Saints, will have their three stars trump Rider's one NBAer.
The Pick: Siena

CAA, William and Mary vs. George Mason (-8.5)- As someone who "covered" the CAA in college, there were a range of reactions to yesterday's outstanding semifinals. First, VCU is again the league's best shot at a deep tourney run and it was a shame to see them lose yesterday and probably get left out of the Dance. But, for a team like William and Mary, which has done such a great job of rebuilding a long-struggling program, to have a chance at March Madness is pretty neat as well. And of course, for George Mason to get another crack at the Tournament, especially for Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell, two outstanding seniors that have been to the Final Four, is all well and good too. Not sure who I'll be rooting for but I might curl up with a pint of Haagen Daaz to suppress all my emotions for this one. Anyway, this is the fourth game in four days for the Tribe and it just so happens to be against one of the most tourney-tested teams in mid-major basketball. I wouldn't bet against George Mason as a favorite in Richmond if Tony Skinn was checking their jockstraps before the game (he is not a gentle person when it comes to that region). I actually like how W & M matches up with the Patriots, especially with the Thomas v. Laimis Kuselius match-up up front, but I just don't see how they have the energy to keep this one close against a great George Mason team with a rabid fanbase.
The Pick: George Mason

Southern Conference, Elon vs. Davidson (-17)- Well everyone expected Davidson to be here, with its now 22 conference wins this year, but the No. 7 seed Phoenix, who have caught fire and won three straight nights in Charleston are a big surprise. It's a welcome surprise for Bubble teams around the country who need Davidson to make sure the SoCon is a one-bid league. If the Wildcats were to somehow lose, they would right there with Illinois State and VCU as the most perilous of Bubble teams. The large spread indicates that shouldn't be an issue. But covering might be. Davidson only beat Elon by 10 at home this year and by two on the road. The Phoenix held the Cats to its second and seventh lowest offensive efficiency ratings of the year, with the other five lowest coming to Duke, UCLA, UNC, Charlotte and NC State. Eighth-grader Stephen Curry had 36 in the home meeting but just 15 when going on the road against Elon. The Phoenix play a lot of guys, despite being in the bottom 50 teams in D-I in tempo. When you see them you will expect a sharpshooting squad but they are among the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation. Their "strength" is down low with two 6-8 forwards, one of which, Ola Atoyebi, is their leading scorer and rebounder. Davidson will win pretty easily and I'm gonna be watching this next game, but don't think Elon gets completely embarrassed. Plus, Elon has God, and a pugnacious one at that, on its side.
The Pick: Elon

West Coast, Gonzaga (-7.5) at San Diego- I tried to stay up for the St. Mary's-San Diego game last night but instead chose sleep and a functional day when I saw the Gaels up about 15 in the second half. When I awoke to see the Toreros had come back and won in double-overtime, in what sounds like it was an incredible game (34 combined points in second OT), I cursed those extra couple hours of sleep. If the Bulldogs win, it will be their fifth straight auto-bid and will cement a two-bid league. If San Diego wins, the West Coast gets an unprecedented three teams and snatches a bid from that mass of excrement that is this year's Bubble. This is probably an understatement, but that atmosphere is going to be batshit crazy tonight. As someone who gets an unusual, probably unhealthy enjoyment out of those late-night WCC games, the atmosphere tonight should be overwhelming. Plus, the game will be played in the Jenny Craig Pavilion, which means the fans will likely be hungry, cranky and eager to take out their issues of self-worth on an anonymous opponent. The Zags are coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the year in beating Santa Clara by four last night but its last loss to San Diego came eight years ago... in the West Coast Conference championship... in San Diego. I don't think history will repeat itself, but I think it will be close.
The Pick: San Diego

Championship Week Record: 4-0
Overall Record: 59-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0