Tuesday's Picks: Summit, Horizon and Sun Belt Championships

Your "I Bet I Could Beat AJ Graves In A Fight," Picture of the Day

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: I suppose it's fun and all that I ran my Championship Week record to 8-0 last night, but it's NOT fun what South Alabama and Gonzaga so carelessly did to the Bubble. San Diego not only covered the 7.5 points they were getting, but they beat down the Zags, completely stifling (and by "stifling," I mean, "letting Josh Heytvelt touch the ball") and stole a bid from the Bubble (South Alabama lost to Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis, which I didn't pick correctly and thus, infuriates me more). Anyway, that was annoying, but good for the Toreros or whatever. In the other three contests, George Mason (-8.5) covered by a half point, tempting the Committee to make them a No. 11 again to force millions of idiots to pick them to go to the Final Four (they can win A game, but let's be realistic). Davidson (-17) missed covering by one (yea, I got pretty lucky) and Siena destroyed Rider (although I still want my Sixers to take a long look at Jason Thompson this year), and appears to be a very dangerous No. 13 or 14 seed.

Summit, IUPUI vs. Oral Roberts (-3)- I don't care what IUPUI stands for, but I know that "funny" analysts call it Ooey Pooey, which is something that bloggers are probably going to have a field day with if they get in. It's been that kind of season (not that ORAL Roberts will be a letdown). I like this year's ORU team, although not as much as the Caleb Green/Ken Tutt editions. It has beaten Oklahoma State on the road and hung with some other major conference teams. In the BracketBusters the Eagles lost to Creighton but still impressed. The Robert Jarvis/Moses Ehambe is a worthy replacement I suppose, and I like point guard Adam Liberty too. As for Ooey Pooey, I got nothing on them. The Jags have a more potent offensive attack and are led by George Hill, who is the POY in the league and has carried them in this tourney. Ooey Pooey is the only team that was able to challenge ORU this year and the two game split in the regular season was decided by four points total. So it should be a good one. Both teams play pretty slow but I am going to have trouble believing ORU can slow down one of the more efficient offenses in the country, even if I haven't seen the Jags play. (Seriously, look at these offensive numbers.)
The Pick: Ooey Pooey

Sun Belt, Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky (-8.5)- The irony of South Alabama's win is that even though it gave the Hilltoppers a better shot at an auto bid, it basically wiped out their at-large hopes. A loss to South Alabama in the finals would have been forgivable, but a loss to Middle Tennessee State is not for a team on such perilous grounds. The Blue Raiders (real nickname) are very weird. A .500 regular season team and No. 4 seed in the conference, they have beaten South Alabama twice this season... but lost to Tennessee by 69. Conversely, WKU lost to Tennessee by six. So I have no idea what the hell to think. The Hilltoppers are led by league POY and 20-point scorer Courtney Lee, who also happens to be one of the better players in all of mid-major basketball, and have swept MTSU this year, winning by 11 and five. The Blue Raiders (why are they blue?!?) have a more balanced attack with four players averaging 9+ points and 4+ rebounds per game. By the looks of them, they are a pretty run of the mill mediocre mid-major team, which should be problematic because WKU is not.
The Pick: Western Kentucky

Horizon, Cleveland State at Butler (-9.5)- OK, I have to tread lightly here. First, Butler cannot lose this game. Simply cannot. It will destroy the already atrociously murky Bubble and cause tomorrow's Syracuse game vs. Villanova to be perhaps the most stressful of my life. Now, this is basically the same situation as the San Diego/Gonzaga game last night (except the higher seed is the home team), so I have to be careful about repeating my own jinx and taking Cleveland State. But whereas Gonzaga is some kind of new school mid-major that eschewed hustle, passing and shooting for All Americans, stoners and athletes, Butler is still a mid-major in appearance playing on level with the big boys. Butler, and especially its fans at Hinkel, know that there is more to a season than Sweet 16 runs. They want this conference and won't let the Vikings, who earned a split with the Bulldogs this year (both decided by five or less) and are the No. 2 seed, take the Horizon League that Butler still holds so dear.... At least that's what I'm telling myself. This game should be an all-out slugfest in a great atmosphere. Both teams play great defense and have some really outstanding, exciting players (Mike Green and AJ Graves on Butler; J'Nathan (real first name) Bullock and Cedric Jackson on Cleveland State). But I think Butler's shooting (37.6 from three) is too big an advantage over the Vikings (31.3 percent) in a game where knocking down the few open shots available is key. The line is set very well and I think Butler wins but Cleveland State sneaks in under the line, jinx be damned
The Pick: Cleveland State

Championship Week Record: 8-0
Overall Record: 63-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0