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Saturday, May 3, 2008

Release From Hibernation: NBA Draft Early Entrants Part 1

Draft time is Hubie time

OK, I haven't been able to post on here lately due to things less interesting than basketball occupying time. So it goes. But on Thursday they announced the final list of early entry candidates for the Draft. For your own sake, here is a summary: EVERYONE declared for the draft. Seriously. There are 69 early entrants to the draft, just from college. Some are no-brainers, others have no brains. Here are those that are important and what their prospects are, in addition to a couple notable returnees. For analysis on Lee Cummard's draft chances, look elsewhere and be sure to put SafeSearch "on" before you Google.

Today we look at those who are in the draft, with an agent. Those that are testing the waters will come at a later date. Those who are coming back will be covered as well, with the possibility of a few thousand words on how dumb Tyler Hansbrough is.

Oh and hopefully I can get some more draft stuff up, because it is my favorite thing of the year.

IN (with agent):
Michael Beasley- I hope Beasley didn't kill a vagrant or impregnate a thirteen-year-old or something, because that is the only way he is not No. 1 in my book. Derrick Rose is a ridiculous freak of a basketball player, but Beasley is probably the most ready NBA ready player of the past three years. He can play 35 minutes at either forward for you right now. His ceiling is lower than Rose, but not by much.

Derrick Rose- Looking at the potential teams for the top pick, only Seattle should consider taking Rose. That being said, I have never seen a combination of size, speed and athleticism in a point guard that Rose has. He will never be a great scorer (like "Top 15 in the league" great) but he has the capability of being great at everything else, especially as a defender. If he did go to those Sonics, I would consider purchasing them.

Jerryd Bayless- The weirdness surrounding that program, plus the coming of Brandon Jennings and his hair made this pretty easy for Bayless. As great as he was in college, I don't know if he's a sure thing for the pros. One thing he does have going for him is all those intangibles that might be meaningless but that GMs love. He plays hard, hurt and has a mean streak in him, which is probably worth a slot or two in the draft order. He is going to be judged against Mayo and Gordon, which should make for some mind-bottingly awesome workouts.

Eric Gordon- Everyone who thinks he should slide is a bit insane. Of the guards near the top of the draft his game is the one that is least suited for college in relation to the NBA. There's no reason for someone like Eric Gordon to not take a buttload of threes in college when his range is roughly 72 feet. I don't think he's an All Star, but, like, isn't he better than someone like Randy Foye, who was drafted pretty high and is a decent pro?

OJ Mayo- No player in this year's draft will be more divisive. Mayo can step into the league and be a very good defender right away and on a team like Minnesota, with a good post player, could be a good scorer right away because teams won't be able to focus on him. He is not a headcase. At all. So don't worry about all that crap about character that ESPN's retarded analysts will freak out about. Like I said, he will be compared to Gordon and Bayless and I think I'd take him over both at this point.

Derrick Caracter- Fat.

Kevin Love- Fat. .... Oh sorry. Love will also be a divisive dude because most fans will expect a player of his profile to be a star but he will not be in the NBA. What he will be is a pretty good secondary player. Think Joakim Noah except someone you don't necessarily want to stab. This is another guy that needs a good fit. It needs to be a team with a somewhat capable scorer on the block so they can go high-low and take advantage of his passing/shooting. And a team with a good point guard because Love is probably the best pick-and-pop player in any of the past couple drafts (note: no one in the lottery fits that description, but I still think he should be a lottery pick). He will not be a low-post scorer or a good defender though. He needs to get rid of that chinstrap.

Brook Lopez- I am in the camp that thinks Lopez should be the No. 3 pick. I have not seen many people at this camp. He's got an NBA-ready frame and while his post moves are non-existent, he's not a stiff. There is no one at the top of the draft that can justify not taking a center, especially one whose weaknesses aren't physical or ability-related, but just a matter of needing more polish.

JaVale McGee- I hate people like JaVale McGee. JaVale McGee is Rafael Araujo. He is Patrick O'Bryant. He is Cedric Simmons. A guy who thinks he can be an NBA player because he is big and can run a bit. McGee is going to be a lottery pick for a team like Indiana or New Jersey, which have no idea how to run a franchise and take him because he is big and he can run a bit. We must stop this menace.

Chris Douglas-Roberts- He will be the quintessential "great role player" from this draft. If he's one of your top three players in the NBA, you suck. If he is your fourth or fifth best player, you are in good shape. The jumper needs work but he's good at everything else and appears to have the mental make-up to embrace a lockdown defender role if needed. He's the type of player that can take an emerging late-lottery team (Golden State, Portland, Sacramento) into the playoffs.

DJ Augustin- I was surprised that Augustin hired an agent, especially because he didn't test the process last year (side note: it is completely idiotic to hire an agent the first time you declare for the draft; conversely it is completely idiotic to not declare at least once during your college career). He's not a top five guard in this draft, which doesn't bode well for his lottery hopes in a league of decision-makers that cream their jeans over size. Maybe he can become a Tony Parker type dude, but his best bet is if a Western Conference team (Houston, Utah) makes him its back-up.

CJ Giles- Bad at basketball.

Davon Jefferson- I've been unable to find a reliable place with info on whether Jefferson signed an agent, but I have to assume there is no way he will return to USC after the weird, up and down season he had last year. Jefferson is EXACTLY the type of risk/reward guy that GMs are terrified of. One of two things will happen with him. A) he will have some crazy workouts and some team will shock everyone by taking him in the late lottery and he will be awful and/or crazy. B) everyone will be scared of his inconsistency and age (he's 21) and he will drop to the bottom of the first round or early second and then be really really good. Nothing else can happen to him.

Robin Lopez- He is Harvey Grant. He is Jason Collins. He is Jarron Collins. He is Frank Stallone,. But he's actually pretty good and would be a real solid bench big man for a playoff team picking in the 20s that needs 20 minutes of defense rebounding and energy. Will be compared to Anderson Varejao by many.

Anthony Randolph- I really liked this guy before the year and saw him play a couple times and continued to like him. That being said, he is NOT a top 10 pick, like many people think he is. Yes he is a better fit for the new, sleaker NBA, but as we have seen in the playoffs, you can't get by on simply athleticism like you can in college. He is a small-ball power forward in the NBA and one that favors comparably to someone like Brandan Wright, who he will be compared to constantly, because he can shoot a little bit. But I can't see him being anything but a huge liability trying to cover other NBA power forwards in the half-court. Another guy that has talent, but will be drafted too high by some awful franchise (Milwaukee) that will squander it.

Brandon Rush- Boring, somewhere in the 20s pick that will be a key contributor for a good team in the future.

And just for the record, here are the 14 guys I think should be in the lottery, in no particular order, with no regard to team needs or anything.

Derrick Rose
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Brook Lopez
Jerryd Bayless
Eric Gordon
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
Danillo Gallinari (from other country)
Nicolas Batum (from other country)
Anthony Randolph
Davon Jefferson
Chris Douglas-Roberts
Darrell Arthur

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2 Comments:

  • At May 8, 2008 10:12 AM , Anonymous Perry said...

    Hi Jason,

    Good post, but I think a case can be made for taking Rose by any of the top five teams except Memphis. The T'Wolves, Heat, and Knicks could all use a guy like Rose, who will make his teammates better than Beasley. Beasley will have more of an instant impact and will undoubtedly win the rookie of the year, but Rose is likely to contribute more to wins (i.e. be more valuable, but not necessarily better - stats-wise).

    Also, no way the Bucks take Randolph. They are under new (and excellent) management and already have two small ball power forwards in Yi and Villanueva.

     
  • At May 8, 2008 7:53 PM , Blogger jtom said...

    Well I don't think any of those teams should pick him OVER Beasley, which is what I meant but might not have written very clearly. The Chris Paul/Deron Williams thing helps his chances but you just can't pass up a scoring forward like Beasley, especially one that polished at 19.

    And as long as Herb Kohl owns the Bucks I will assume they will be wrong about every decision the make. Larry Harris seemed like a good GM too when he signed guys like Bobby Simmons and somehow got Michael Redd to stay. Then the Bogut fiasco, then the bad signings of Charlie Bell and Mo Williams, then the complete misuse of Villanueva and Yi. Actually they will probably take DeAndre Jordan.

     

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