Bracketology, Just Because: Final Edition

It's Judgment Day, Joey Brackets. Will your precious Jaguars survive? May the best bracketologist win.

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Hypothetical conference champs, the yellow cells, based on conference tourney seedings; confirmed auto-bids in teal or whatever that is).

Bracketology, March 16, 5:45: FINAL EDITION
Bracketology, March 16, 5:10
Bracketology, March 16, 4:30

Last Four In:
St. Joe's
Ohio State
Arizona State
Villanova
First Four Out:
South Alabama
Virginia Tech
Illinois State
Massachusetts

No Bubble profiles today, it's a bit too late for that. But I'll be doing some updates to chronicle any changes that might be needed as a result of these last conference championship games.

5:40 p.m. Eastern- Georgia wins and many are pissed. Actually, this is a completely unreal story and one that should be embraced. All the turmoil the Bulldogs have been through, Dennis Felton's job being on the line and the weirdness that was the SEC Tournament; you can't help but root for them. But don't tell Villanova and Arizona State fans that. The win knocks the Sun Devils out of my bracket, even though I think they should definitely be in. But I'm trying to get this thing correct, so I gotta do it. Georgia is a No. 13, Western Kentucky moves up and that link there is my final Bracket of the season (thank God). Let's see how it measures up and enjoy some damn Madness already.

5:10 p.m. Eastern- Kansas is your Big 12 champ and No. 1 seed in the Midwest after a thrilling win over Texas. Both teams look like legit Final Four squads and possible title contenders. Wisconsin is going to beat Illinois pretty handily and could make a case for a No. 2 seed, over either Georgetown or Duke. The Blue Devils beat the Badgers though, so it'll probably come down to them and the Hoyas. As much as I hate Georgetown, I think they deserve that spot for winning the regular season of a league that might have seven teams in the top 30 seeds of the Tournament. Georgia is up 10 right now with 6:30 left. So I think they are going to knock out Nova or Arizona State. My heart says Nova, but in the interest of having an accurate bracket for future boasting and self-promotional opportunities (read: I'm a dick), I'll probably drop the Sun Devils out. This will be a heartbreaking thing to do, but this Bracketology business is not for the timid. The Bulldogs would probably be a No. 13 seed, with San Diego or Western Kentucky moving up to the 12-line.

4:36 p.m. Eastern- The winner of Texas and Kansas will be my fourth No. 1 seed. If Georgia wins, and it is up 10 at half right now, Villanova and Arizona State are the two teams that should be worried. I personally think the Sun Devils should be in by virtue of their top 50 record, but they would be the lowest RPI to ever get an at-large bid (since RPI was invented by some black-souled antagonist) so that spot might be more perilous than I consider it. I would put Nova out first, but it's pretty close. Also, the committee probably likes South Alabama more than me and I think that is the one team that will be included that I don't have. And Virginia Tech might have played UNC close, but tons of other teams have narrowly missed big wins so I'm not sure why that one should matter more. Otherwise, I'm not seeing what's so tough this year; all the league tournaments have kinda sorted things out. I don't see how you could make a case for any of those squads besides South Alabama over the ones I have. But surely someone in the Committee will and much angst will result. The funny thing is that with all the Bubble nonsense, Kansas and Texas are playing one of the better games of the year right now, and hopefully that will shift the focus to, you know, the teams that actually matter, leading up to the Selection Show. We'll see what happens this afternoon and I'll have a final bracket to see how it compares to the real thing and all the other Bracketologists out there. And I'll be doing a log (not a live blog) of the Selection Show so look for that.

Previous Bubble Profiles:
March 14, Villanova and Virginia Tech
March 13, South Alabama and Illinois State
March 11, Arizona State and Mississippi
March 7, Ohio State and Florida
March 4, Maryland and New Mexico
February 29, St. Joe's and Kentucky
February 26, Rhode Island and UAB

Your Gratuitous BracketBuster Preview

If you can will yourself to ignore all of this Kelvin Sampson excruciating minutiae fun, you may have noticed we've got our first really big, important college hoops weekend coming up. Bubbles are being formed, conference races shaping up, Gus Johnson has begun drinking 12 cups of coffee per day and to kick off the March precursor we get the BracketBusters, beginning tonight. Despite a history of bad decisions by the media and its college basketball coverage, the BracketBusters was a great idea, so it's only fitting that we take advantage of such rare competence and watch the hell out of these games. (Also, there are a ton more teams involved in this that just aren't on TV, here is a full schedule.)

I've talked about "Point of Reference Games" -- where good, under-the-radar teams finally get a nationally televised chance to give casual fans a point of reference when eventually deciding if these obscure squads are first-round losers or Sweet 16 Cinderellas -- and the BracketBusters is founded on that principle. So here is your preview of the ESPN(2) contests and a couple others that might matter in March. All games are Saturday unless listed otherwise.

And Kyle Whelliston of ESPN.com and Mid-Majority has a great preview as well but it does not include jokes about religion, mid-Westerners or one-night stands as this does.

Davidson at Winthrop, Friday 7 ET ESPN2- For a preview of this game check out Friday's Pick.

Virginia Commonwealth at Akron, 11 a.m. ET ESPN2
The Skinny: The Rams (RPI: 60) should be a bit perturbed that they didn't get a better match-up than this. That's not to say Akron (RPI: 91) isn't a good team and a road win wouldn't be impressive, but for a team looking to boost its resume in case of a pitfall in the always tough CAA Tournament, this game is an almost no-win situation. VCU, one of the best defensive teams in the country (fourth in eff. FG% defense, tops in 3-PT defense in country) is going to get what they want, which is a slow, defensive-minded game.
Key Factor: The Zips (real nickname) are a good three-point shooting team with Nick Dials and Cedric Middleton, but probably haven't seen the type of smothering ball pressure on the perimeter (not to mention the length inside that will give Akron leading scorer and recently injured Jeremiah Wood fits) that VCU will provide. Well, actually they have once, they played partial VCU clone Winthrop in December and shot 35.5 percent from the field and 7-27 from three in a 68-58 loss.
To Watch For: The one thing the Zips have going for them is that abysmal 11 a.m. starting time. A star like Eric Maynor usually isn't going to be asleep on a Friday until like 6 the following morning. I've gotta think when you're making the Walk Of Shame to the team bus, it's a bit of a disadvantage.
Final Score: VCU 62, Akron 58

George Mason at Ohio, 1 ET ESPN2
The Skinny: Both teams had an inside track on a decent at-large case until recently. Mason (RPI: 67) has lost two of four and will need some of its patented magical NCAA Tournament pixie dust again to make the dance (and will probably have to go through VCU again to do it.) Ohio (RPI: 62), which owns a win at Maryland, has lost three of its last five and is third in the East division of the MAC.
Key Factor: This game will feature some great battles on the inside with both teams strength lying in the frontcourt. Folarin Campbell and double-double man Will Thomas (16 and 10), two holdovers from the Patriots Final Four run, will match up against Jerome Tillman and double-double man Leon Williams (15 and 10), which should make entry passing, foul trouble and reliable spot up shooting the deciders (not George W. Bush, contrary to popular belief) in this game.
To Watch For: In a very deliberate game like this, you have to favor a team that executes in the half-court and takes care of the ball like George Mason. You also have to favor George Mason because it is clearly a team with divine powers and Jim Larranaga an obvious John From Cincinnati.
/references shitty, abstract TV show
Final Score: George Mason 70, Ohio 63

Creighton at Oral Roberts, 3 ET ESPN2
The Skinny: I've seen Creighton (RPI: 71) play once this year and I thought I was watching an NCAA Tournament team. Perhaps I was hallucinating. Since that game (Jan. 15 at Northern Iowa) the Blue Jays are 5-5 and 0-4 on the road, ending their at-large hopes. Although I am hearing they will still play this game anyway, so let's talk about their opponent. Gone from ORU (RPI: 46) are 12-year players Caleb Green and Ken Tutt, leaving behind a group of likely Christian Fundamentalists who have smited their Summit League opponents to a 15-1, first place conference record. Four of the Golden Eagles losses are at Texas, Texas A & M, Arkansas and Utah State, with the other two a three-point loss and an OT loss, both on the road. A win here would give them a slight chance (perhaps with the help of some divine intervention, huh? maybe?) at giving the committee something to think about.
Key Factor: This is a great Point of Reference game because if either team gets in, it will be capable of winning a game in March. Despite playing the typical mid-major game of deliberate offense, solid D and timely shooting, ORU actually has the personnel of a major conference school. They are 6-8 (Marcus Lewis) and 6-10 (Shawn King) up front which results in a solid interior defense and have decent quickness on the perimeter. Creighton is going to run a bunch of guys out there, many of whom will be part of the Korver family, play a bit quicker than most Valley teams and will try to turn pressure into turnovers.
To Watch For: God.
Final Score: Oral Roberts 73, Creighton 69

Nevada at Southern Illinois, 4:30 ET ESPNU
The Skinny: Wow! Nevada and Southern Illinois! We could see both these teams in the Elite Eight!... waits for right time to break the news...waits for it... sigh... No, retarded hoops fan, these are not the Nevada (RPI: 73) and SIU (RPI: 58) teams you are used to. These former mid-major darlings have fallen on hard times this season (and may be cooperating on a jealousy-fueled murder plot of Butler, which doesn't even return either team's phone calls anymore). Each is in third in its respective conference, but will need an auto bid to cause a Tourney ruckus.
Key Factor: We do, however get to see some really solid players, most notably Nevada's sophomore center JaVale McGee and senior forward Marcellus Kemp and Southern Illinois' Randal Falker. McGee is an NBA prospect, which means he will likely crush the hopes and dreams of Wolf Pack fans by leaving early, but hey, why should we care! Kemp put his name in last year but decided to return and is averaging 20 per game this year. Probably still gonna be a second-rounder anyway. And Randall Falker is one of the great mid-major players you'll ever see. A bruiser, great defender and improving offensive presence, Falker will be matched up on McGee and his ability to stay out of foul trouble and limit the big man will go a long way to deciding this one.
To Watch For: The Salukis' struggles this year have not carried over to their incredible home court advantage, with their only two losses coming to Indiana and Butler. Nevada doesn't have the most reliable ballhandlers so expect the crowd to smell blood and lead their oddly named squad to triumph.
Final Score: Southern Illinois 69, Nevada 60

Drake at Butler, 5 ET ESPN2
The Skinny: Ah, here we go. This is what happens when networks use common sense to pick match-ups. No one ever would have thought Drake-Butler would be a watchable game and lo and behold we have one of the best mid-major match-ups of the season. Both teams are in the NCAAs already so this is about seeding. Butler (RPI: 17) has a legit shot at a No. 3 seed while Drake (RPI: 15) is probably looking at something in the 6-8 range after losing two of the three.
Key Factor: Despite being mildly obsessed with The Drake (mostly due to the Seinfeld reference possibilities) I haven't seen them play this year. No one has. That's why this game should be so great. There is no secret to what the Bulldogs do though, which is lull you to sleep on the offensive end until they get an easy basket and never ever turn the ball over. Butler basically does the same thing, except better. You better make sure there are no gas leaks in your house when this game tips because you will be out cold before the first TV timeout (also you don't want to be poisoned, so there's that).
To Watch For: The big match-up is in the backcourt with Butler's battle-tested duo of AJ Graves and Mike Green clashing with Drake's top two scorers Josh Young and Leonard Houston. But the key to the game could be Butler freshman Matt Howard, who Drake has no answer for but tends to take himself out of games with foul trouble. When he gets going the three barrage begins and Drake doesn't defend the line all that well.
Final Score: Butler 58, Drake 48

Kent State at St. Mary's, Midnight ESPN2
The Skinny: With the Gaels (RPI: 26) already in and focused merely on vanquishing the Zags in a battle for West Coast supremacy (and I believe free Taco Bell), this is a HUGE game for Kent State (RPI: 40). The Flashes have wreaked havoc in March before and currently sit atop the MAC but have just one non-conference win (George Mason) to hang their hat on. If they travel across the country and beat a really good St. Mary's team, they should be on the good side of the Bubble, at least for the time being.
Key Factor: Kent State has a chance in this game if they slow the tempo and make St. Mary's play in the halfcourt. The Gaels are still pretty good in the halfcourt and it will be tough to slow them down in the coffin-like cozy gym they have there. But the Flashes should be happy with "a chance" to pull this one off. I do like their ability to match up with Mills in the backcourt but it's going to be tough for a small Kent team to stop Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan. If this game was at Kent State it would be a very even match up, though.
To Watch For: Will St. Mary's, and its fans, care enough? The Gaels have third place San Diego coming in Monday and travel to Gonzaga for a vengeance game next week. Frankly they have bigger fish to fry (or tofu or whatever the fuck they eat out there). If they come out flat against a desperate, but solid mid-major this won't be a gimme.
Final Score: St. Mary's 78, Kent State 65

Wright State at Illinois State, Sunday 6:30 ET ESPNU
The Skinny: With the first-place teams in the Horizon and Valley facing off in Drake-Butler, it might overshadow another important game between the second-place teams in those leagues. Whichever team wins this might fool themselves into thinking an at-large isn't a complete pipe dream. Wright State (RPI: 70) beat Butler to earn the auto-bid last year and have beaten the Bulldogs this season, with a chance to sweep next week. Illinois State (RPI: 52) is second in a usual multi-bid Valley but is 4-5 in its last nine, a streak that began with a loss to The Drake.
Key Factor: Both teams do that whole good defense, boring offense, good shooters thing that mid-majors love so much but also both have rising stars leading their respective teams from the backcourt. Sophomores Osiris Eldridge of Illinois State and Vaughn Duggins of Wright State should be a great match-up of likely future POYs in their leagues.
To Watch For: Shifty Mid-Westerners
Final Score: Wright State 54, Illinois State 52