Bracketology, Just Because: Villanova and Virginia Tech Edition

The end is near. Mercifully.

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Hypothetical conference champs, the yellow cells, based on conference tourney seedings; confirmed auto-bids in teal or whatever that is).

Bracketology, March 14

OK, so it appears that no one is interested in playing in this little tournament we have coming up here. The only Bubble team that played yesterday and actually won was St. Joe's (if you considered UNLV and West Virginia Bubble teams, they won too), which means the Hawks should be in, win or lose today vs. Xavier, especially after UMass, which they have beaten twice, blew an 18 point second half lead to Charlotte. The result is actually a clearer Bubble, because teams like UAB, Florida, New Mexico and Maryland played themselves completely out of the discussion. A team like Illinois State, which is a fraud, now has new light, because it's probably going to be the only Bubble team to make its conference final. It lost by 30 in that game and has zero wins against the RPI Top 50, but hey, at least they actually beat a basketball team to get there! Yippeee!

True Bubble (in order of security): Baylor, Arkansas, Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona State, St. Joe's, Villanova, South Alabama -- They are in as of this second with Baylor, despite that ugly loss to Colorado, probably being a lock but deserving to be grouped with like-minded mediocrity and South Alabama just waiting to be knocked out. On the outside, you've got: Illinois State, Mississippi, UMass, Virginia Tech, VCU and Temple. Illinois State is first out for me, but probably just dependent on how the Committee compares them to other teams and two teams, Virginia Tech (more on them below) and Temple, with a chance to play their way in. Temple needs to beat Charlotte and at least play the A-10 Final tight with St. Joe's or Xavier to have an at-large chance. So that's 14 teams vying for eight spots, with only four of those teams still playing this week. Can we just make this like a 58 team tournament? I don't want to have to watch any of these teams play basketball anymore.

Bubble Profiles
Previously:
March 13, South Alabama and Illinois State
March 11, Arizona State and Mississippi
March 7, Ohio State and Florida
March 4, Maryland and New Mexico
February 29, St. Joe's and Kentucky
February 26, Rhode Island and UAB

IN: Villanova
Record: 20-12 (9-9 Big East), 4-7 road, 3-7 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-9 vs. Top 100
RPI: 51
Key Wins: George Mason (N), Temple, Pittsburgh, Syracuse (2), West Virginia, Connecticut
Key Losses: NC State, DePaul, Rutgers, St. Joe's, Cincinnati, Georgetown (2)


When that quarterfinal game against Georgetown ended yesterday I think the Cats were out, even with the win in that "play-in" game against Syracuse. But after every damn Bubble team went out and shit the bed, the Cats were given new life. Congratulations (?). There are some solid wins, all of which are at home (of those four road wins, one was in Philly, one was over Syracuse and the other two were against bottom five Big East teams), but some bad losses, all of which were on the road. This is basically a perfect example of how weak the Bubble is this year. A team that basically played its schedule about as adequately it could, with a fairy middle-of-the-road non-conference sked and allowed other teams to lose their way out of the tourney to make room for them. The Cats will certainly be one of those teams that ESPN or CBS has the camera on the whole Selection Show for their reaction to whether they get in, because they are more squarely on the Bubble than any other BCS league team, barely more so than Arizona State and Oregon. For those three teams it will depend on if the Committee is in a mid-major mood this year or a BCS mood this year. By the way, this is the one team I have in that Lunardi has out, which is probably a bad thing for me, because I think he's been clueless this year. I have Illinois State out, he has them safely in. He has South Alabama very safely in, but I don't think they will survive the weekend.

How To Stay/Get In: The chairman of this year's committee is George Mason AD Tom O'Connor and Nova's best OOC win was a pretty decisive win over the Patriots. Jay Wright seems like a man of integrity, but there are some shameful things I can think of, Jay, that might "make sure" O'Connor "remembers" that game./shudders

OUT: Virginia Tech
Record: 18-12 (9-7, ACC), 4-8 road, 0-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-9 vs. Top 100
RPI: 59
Key Wins: Maryland (2), seriously that's it
Key Losses: Butler, Gonzaga, Penn State, Richmond, Clemson, Duke, UNC, Miami

Any other year and this team would have zero chance of getting in. But after what happened yesterday, the Hokies have a chance to get into the ACC semis when most other Bubble teams couldn't get past the quarters (or even into the quarters) of lesser leagues. They only had to play the top three and No. 5 (Miami) in the league once each and loss all of them with Sunday's one-point loss at Clemson a heartbreaker that added them to the list of Bubble teams, along with Arizona State and Villanova, that have poor officiating as a big factor in their fate. There are no good wins to speak of here, just an easy in-conference schedule that allowed them to beef up their record on the bottom-feeders in the league and get a fourth place ACC finish that usually means an at-large bid. Virginia Tech did play Butler and Gonzaga tough in a decent OOC schedule but there just isn't a lot to like here. And yet, somehow, a win today might be enough.

How To Stay/Get In: Some will point to today's game against Miami and say if the Hokies win they are in, but I'm not entirely sure. If they win they are right on the Bubble, but still can't really compare to Villanova, Arizona State and Oregon as BCS teams with signature wins. Now if they win and play UNC tough in the semis, you could probably make a case for them to be included over South Alabama, VCU or Illinois State, the three mid-major teams that will be in Bubble consideration, that are also lacking marquee wins. Of course, V-Tech is also going to need Temple to fade away and maybe a similar team like Arkansas, which doesn't have too many great wins, to lose early in the SEC. Or, and this is kinda radical, the Hokies could -- stay with me here -- actually beat a good team like UNC to win their way into the NCAAs. But that's just plain silly.

Bracketology, Just Because: South Alabama and Illinois State

Doritos. Nacho cheesy goodness. The way to any Selection Committee members' heart

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Hypothetical conference champs, the yellow cells, based on conference tourney seedings; confirmed auto-bids in teal or whatever that is).

Bracketology, March 13

I'm gonna be doing this every day until Selection Sunday now that the conference tourneys have started. This is going to probably be the most difficult field to project in a long time given the weakness of the Bubble. By my count there are 16 teams fighting for seven spots with some early-round upsets in the conference tournament or unexpected auto-bidders providing the potential to cloud it even more. For the record, here are the teams:

True Bubble: Massachusetts, Arkansas, Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona State, South Alabama, Mississippi -- they are in at this second, with UMass the "safest" and Ole Miss the least safe. Then you got -- Villanova, New Mexico, Illinois State, Dayton, UAB, St. Joe's, Virginia Tech, VCU, Maryland -- with the Cats the first out and Maryland needing a very deep run.

Bubble Profiles
Previously:
March 11, Arizona State and Mississippi
March 7, Ohio State and Florida
March 4, Maryland and New Mexico
February 29, St. Joe's and Kentucky
February 26, Rhode Island and UAB

IN: South Alabama
Record: 26-6 (16-2, Sun Belt), 7-4 road, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
RPI: 39
Key Wins: San Diego, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky (2)
Key Losses: Middle Tennessee State (2), Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, North Texas
The RPI is dwindling to the point where the Jags might be in now but will probably need help to stay in. After all, they can't play their way in because, you know, they don't have any games left. A semifinal Sun Belt tourney loss to Middle Tennessee State, the second of the year to the league's No. 5 seed, ended South Alabama's auto-bid hopes and gave it to its rival, Western Kentucky, which it beat twice this year. It's a shame because South Alabama did almost everything it should have as a low-major and if it had just gotten by MTSU and still lost to the Hilltoppers in the Final, I think the Jags would be pretty safe. The win over San Diego, in Anaheim, looks a lot better now that the Toreros are dancing and beating Mississippi State was huge. But on top of the bad losses, I'm not sure they can overcome the very near wins against two SEC squads, losing by three at Ole Miss despite battling back from 19-point halftime deficit and losing at Vanderbilt in double overtime. With the RPI in the 20s like it was a few days ago, maybe it would be different, but as it continues to plummet, the Jags should slowly drift out to pasture.

How To Stay/Get In: Pray... Or poison the following people: Chris Warren, Scottie Reynolds, Brian Roberts, James Harden, Jamar Butler and/or Bryce Taylor.

OUT: Illinois State
Record: 24-9 (13-5, Missouri Valley), 7-5 road, 0-5 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100
RPI: 35
Key Wins: Creighton (2), Southern Illinois (2), Wright State
Key Losses: Indiana, Kent State, Drake (3), Eastern Michigan, Indiana State

I'm completely baffled that this team is still in the discussion, so I am writing about this team only to voice my displeasure; their season is over and I have them out, but I cannot be silent. Inexplicably, Joey Brackets LOVES this team, along with New Mexico, for no apparent reason. I respect Mr. Lunardi, but I'm rather convinced anyone with access to KenPom.com (read: everyone) could reach an almost equivalent accuracy as his bracket projections. This team has NO Top 50 wins! And he has them safely in at 62. Even with Lunardi and that belligerent demonbird mascot on your side, you cannot hide from the truth Illinois State. This is another RPI that will start plummeting given Sunday's season-ending destruction at the hands of Drake, which basically made the Redbirds its bitch this season with a three-game sweep. Perhaps if they had held their own, and, you know, not lost by 30, the Birds would feel a little better. But when you rarely play on TV, haven't beaten anyone better than you, are playing with an auto-bid on the line and get a third crack at a Top 20, in-conference team, you should at least pass the eye test. That looked like an NIT team, even if Osiris Eldridge can leap over each and every Korver. Korver-leaping does not a Tourney team make. An 8-2 record in the last 10 might provide something to gripe about when they are left on the outside but it looks like the Valley is a one-bid.

How To Stay/Get In: Take a Committee member hostage.... Or just take away his Doritos.

Bracketology, Just Because: Arizona State and Mississippi Editions

According to Google Images, these young ladies go to ASU.... On second thought, I can think of much worse things to happen to the Sun Devils than missing the NCAA Tournament.... One of those things is gonorrhea, but still...

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Conference champs, the yellow cells, based on current league standings; auto-bids in teal or whatever that is).

Bracketology, March 11

Last Four In:
Syracuse (62)
Oregon (63)
Arizona State (64)
South Alabama (65)
First Four Out:
Mississippi (66)
New Mexico (67)
UAB (68)
Illinois State (69)

Bubble Profiles
Previously:
March 7, Ohio State and Florida
March 4, Maryland and New Mexico
February 29, St. Joe's and Kentucky
February 26, Rhode Island and UAB

IN: Arizona State
Record: 19-11 (9-9, Pac-10), 4-5 road, 5-6 vs. Top 50, 7-9 vs. Top 100
RPI: 76
Key Wins: Xavier, Arizona (2), Stanford, USC
Key Losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Washington State (2), UCLA (2), Cal, Washington


I personally think the Sun Devils should be considered a lock based on the seven Top 100 wins and the fact that they were only swept by UCLA and Washington State and swept Arizona and Oregon State in conference. For a 9-9, fifth place team in a league like the Pac-10, I'm not sure what else should be expected. But I realize that even with that win over Xavier (RPI: 9), their low RPI and nine wins against the bottom 150 in D-I is going to prove problematic. But still, I just don't see how you can beat the teams Arizona State has beaten, and prove to be a MUCH better team after November, and still be left out over the likes of New Mexico or Illinois State, both of which are safely in according to Joey Brackets, both of which have zero wins that can match the Sun Devils' best wins. Plus, ASU finished ahead of Oregon and Arizona in conference, two teams that look to be pretty safe at-large bets (or at least, safer). The lowest RPI to ever get an at-large was, wouldn't you know it, those pesky Lobos of New Mexico, that were ranked 74th in 1999. This team should be the most interesting Bubble case of the year now that Kentucky looks solid.

How To Stay/Get In: While I don't think it should come to this, it looks like the Sun Devils will have to beat USC in the Pac-10 first round (in LA no less), to get in. Not sure how a team with four top 20 wins, just two non-conference losses and a .500 record in the best conference in America has a must-win against the No. 31 RPI in the nation, but this is what we have come to in our little RPI/SOS age. The committee claims it doesn't consider RPI too much and the truth to that has been long debated. But if ASU loses Thursday afternoon, the Selection Committee's decision on them will be pretty solid evidence toward deciphering the reality on that issue. Now, if they win Thursday, and they did beat the Trojans March 1 in Tempe, the Sun Devils are in, no question, but with the way USC has been playing down the stretch, that's not going to be an easy task and could result in a long, excruciating wait for the Sun Devils.

OUT: Mississippi
Record: 21-9 (7-9, SEC), 2-7 road, 5-4 vs. Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100
RPI: 43
Key Wins: South Alabama, New Mexico, Winthrop, at Clemson, Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Key Losses: Auburn (2), LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama

Before the Bubble carnage last night, where losses by Gonzaga and South Alabama likely stole two at-large bids, I had Mississippi in, based off those seven wins against probably tournament teams, including fellow Bubblers South Alabama, New Mexico and Arkansas (although it split with the Razorbacks). Now it looks like a run in the SEC Tournament might be the only chance to overcome a poor conference record against a fairly weak imbalanced schedule. The Rebels split with MSU and Arkanas and only played Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt once each. So five of those nine league losses were to the bottom five in the standings. But if you put Ole Miss' resume against the likes of the aforementioned New Mexico and South Alabama, teams it will be in direct competition with for bids, then the Selection Committee has a difficult decision. Losses to Auburn and LSU aren't so bad when compared to losses to the likes of North Texas and Middle Tennessee State (S. Alabama) or TCU and New Mexico State (New Mexico). The question is, even if they are ranked ahead of those two squads, how bad will they look when compared to Bubble teams from other, stronger BCS leagues like the Big East and Pac-10.

How To Stay/Get In: Well the first option is to use that creepy old tobacco-spittin, whiskey-dranking, likely pimp, definite pedophile they use as an alternative logo up there to creep the shit out of the Selection Committee into giving them a bid. But even if that guy does exist (and I'm sure he does down there), I doubt he has the transportation methods to get to Indianapolis. So instead, they need to beat Georgia for the second time in five days when they meet in the SEC Tourney Thursday and then need to beat Kentucky in the quarterfinals (or at least I think they play UK, the SEC bracket is not dissimilar to the Rosetta Stone) in one of those fancy "elimination" games everyone keeps talking about (even though losing that game shouldn't knock the Cats out, it will be deemed an elimination game by talking heads). That will probably be enough to get them in, depending on what happens elsewhere (like Butler winning tonight for starters). A loss to Kentucky wouldn't change the advantage over those Bubble teams and would still give them 22 wins and a Top 50 RPI, but losing in the conference quarters has some added weight (probably for no reason).
/end of paragraph rife with parenthetical statements

Bracketology, Just Because: Ohio State and Florida Edition

Thad Matta, one of country's finest olden-style white person Bubble pugilists

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Conference champs, the yellow cells, based on current league standings).

Bracketology, March 7

Last Four In:
Maryland (62)
St. Joe's (63)
Kentucky (64)
Ohio State (65)
First Four Out:
New Mexico (66)
Florida (67)
Syracuse (68)
Western Kentucky (69)

Bubble Profiles
Previously:
March 4, Maryland and New Mexico
February 29, St. Joe's and Kentucky
February 26, Rhode Island and UAB

IN: Ohio State
Record: 18-12 (9-8, Big Ten), 4-8 road, 1-9 vs. Top 50, 6-10 vs. Top 100
RPI: 55
Key Wins: Syracuse, Florida, Purdue
Key Losses: North Carolina, Butler, Purdue, Michigan State, Tennessee, Indiana (2), Wisconsin

See what I'm doing here?! With the two teams from last year's National Championship in the same edition?! Isn't that nifty?!... OK, enough of that. Both Ohio State and Florida suck. But at the present moment, after that big win over Purdue the other night, the Buckeyes happen to suck less. It seems as though most Bubble teams simply beat the teams they should and lose to the better squads and with that 1-9 record against the Top 50, Ohio State is no different. But the reason I think they are in right now, is that most of those 12 losses came against top teams, as you can see above. They have nine losses to likely Tournament teams and the other three were all in-conference and on the road. It's not the greatest of resumes, but given how poor the Bubble is, strength-of-schedule is probably going to be a big differentiator. Plus the Buckeyes have beaten fellow Bubblers Syracuse and Florida, which is a nice way to solve any head-to-head comparisons, if the Committee is interested in such things.

How To Stay/Get In: Well if they beat Michigan State Sunday, the Buckeyes can probably punch their ticket. If that doesn't happen, they drop out of the field and will need at least a conference tournament semifinal run to get in. A Big Ten run like that would include a win over someone in the top four of the league and they are only 1-5 combined (and would be 1-6 if they lost to the Spartans) against Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State and Wisconsin. If they don't get in, do not worry Buckeye fans, due to the brilliance of YouTube, you will always have this.

OUT: Florida
Record: 21-9 (8-7, SEC), 4-6 road, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 3-8 vs. Top 100
RPI: 63
Key Wins: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Temple
Key Losses: Florida State, Ohio State, Mississippi, Tennessee (2), LSU, Mississippi State
It would have probably been a good idea for the Gators to have gotten a win over either Tennessee or Mississippi State in the past week, but they didn't and now will probably need some kind of miracle (dare I say, Magic) to keep a three-peat a technical possibility. I actually think Florida is probably good enough to be in the Tournament, but as you can see, it's only beaten one surefire Tourney team. And losing to LSU at home is pretty inexcusable too. Oh, and racking up wins over fierce competition like North Dakota State, Tennessee Tech, North Carolina Central, North Florida, Stetson, Jacksonville, Florida A & M... deep breath... GeorgiaSouthernCharlestonSouthernandVermont in a pretty terrible non-conference slate for a two-time defending champ isn't all that impressive either. If they want to hang their hat on the 21 wins, they should probably play some real basketball teams (my research has shown many of the teams mentioned above might not exist).

How To Stay/Get In: Well, the loser of Sunday's Kentucky-Florida game, which should be incredibly entertaining and will contain many dangerous Kentuckians, is probably done for. So the Gators should go ahead and win that. If they do (and I don't think they will), they will probably still need at least a semifinal run in the SEC Tournament. Given the craptasticness of the league besides Tennessee and Vandy, that's probably not too far-fetched but I still wouldn't hold my breath if I were a Florida fan (incidentally, if I was a Florida fan, I would probably spend very little time caring about basketball, you know, because of the beach and sun and hot chicks and all). The ironic thing is for these teams right on the edge of being in or out, like Florida and Ohio State, is that there is almost certainly going to be some upsets in the mid-major tournaments that will steal at-large bids and that even if Florida fulfills the above scenario, they probably won't get in without some serious help.

Bracketology, Just Because: Maryland and New Mexico Edition

"Have YOU seen our win against UNC?! They are No. 1!... If you mention that American game again I'LL KILL YOU!"

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Conference champs, the yellow cells, based on current league standings).

Bracketology, March 4

Last Four In: UMass (62), Maryland (63), Western Kentucky (64), Kentucky (65)
First Four Out: New Mexico (66), Houston (67), Syracuse (68), Virginia Tech (69)

Bubble Profiles
Previously:
February 26, Rhode Island and UAB
February 29, St. Joe's and Kentucky

IN: Maryland
Record: 18-12 (8-7, ACC), 5-3 road, 1-6 vs. Top 50, 7-10 vs. Top 100
RPI: 64
Key Wins: at North Carolina, Wake Forest (2).
Key Losses: UCLA, Missouri, VCU, Ohio (home), American (home), Virginia Tech (2), Miami, Clemson (home).

Never has a Bubble team clung so tightly to a single victory as the Terps are Kung-fu death gripping onto that victory at No. 1 UNC. As you can see, they have beaten no one else of significance and earned seven of their eight conference wins by beating the bottom half of the league. On paper and even on the court, the Terps look like a team good enough to be in the NCAAs, but the resume is about as suspect as anyone's. Playing 17 games against top 100 RPI teams will get you some SOS points, but again, that ONE win against UNC represents the only over an actual tournament team. Basically, Maryland is in right now because it's MARYLAND and the sight of them beating the Heels in Chapel Hill is one that conjures up memories of past Terp teams that didn't, you know, suck.

How To Stay/Get In: Well, they are in right now because of how bad some of the other Bubble teams are and there's no reason why the Terps can't continue to beat bad teams until they face an actual good one, lose, and then watch as other teams choke them into one of the last at-large bids. Right now they must win at Virginia Sunday and then will be set up for a probable elimination game against Virginia Tech, which has swept the Terps so far this year, in the ACC quarters (they could also match up with Miami, which also beat them, in a similar situation, although the Canes are probably in pretty safely). The question is, if they get to the ACC semis by simply beating another equally mediocre team and then inevitably lose to Duke/UNC, will 20 wins, ten in the ACC but NONE over any tournament teams besides the Heels, will that one win boost them into the NCAAs? It's likely going to be a situation where the Terps' fate is determined by other teams' failures, which means the entire Maryland regular season will have been reduced basically to the day of January 19.

OUT: New Mexico
Record: 22-7 (9-5, Mountain West), 7-5 road, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 2-5 vs. Top 100
RPI: 53
Key Wins: Texas Tech, New Mexico State,
Key Losses: Mississippi, BYU (2), UNLV, TCU

I'm only writing about the Lobos because I know nothing about them and by looking at their resume have absolutely no idea how this team could be considered an NCAA Tournament team. I have them as the first team out basically due to ignorance. So I wanted to examine them further and see if I could divine something, anything, that would warrant NCAA consideration. Come along for the ride, won't you? First, I was SHOCKED to find Texas Tech, the Lobos only "significant" win, in the RPI Top 50. That alone should be reason to throw out the RPI this season. Second, the Lobos are basically another team that beat every bad team they played and lost to every good team they played. They are 0-3 against the top two, BYU and UNLV, in the Mountain West and given their extremely easy schedule, those games are the only shot the Lobos have had at beating a Tournament team. As you can see, 20 of their wins are against teams with an RPI of more than 100 and eight of those are against teams beyond 200. OK, so upon further review, they suck more than I had previously believed.

How To Stay/Get In: Now that I know a little bit more about New Mexico, it would be a complete fraud and perfectly wonderful indicator of how bad the Bubble is if it gets in. That being said, the Lobos somehow have a massive game tonight when they host UNLV and if they win, they will, in defiance of God, be penciled in to the tourney field by most Bracketologists. Well not this one. New Mexico will have to beat UNLV and then defeat either BYU or the Rebels en route to the Mountain West final (which is in Vegas) to gain consideration from me. I just don't see how you can reward this team for not beating anyone of significance over teams like Kentucky, Syracuse and Dayton, which have wins over Top 10 teams. Plus, I don't see how the Lobos have a better resume than lower mid-majors like Stephen F. Austin or Siena or even Robert Morris, which have also simply beat the teams they should and lost to the others (actually SFA has won at Oklahoma, Siena won at Stanford and Robert Morris has beaten BC). Yes the Mountain West is better than those teams' conferences, but that doesn't mean those within it play a considerably better schedule. Don't expect New Mexico to be in Friday's field, no matter what happens.

Bracketology, Just Because: St. Joseph's and Kentucky Edition

The Wildcats tourney hopes are looking perkier (wink)..... I have no shame.

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Conference champs, the yellow cells, based on current league standings).

Bracketology, February 29

Last Four In: Syracuse (62), Florida (63), St. Joseph's (64), UAB (65)
First Four Out: Rhode Island (66), Southern Illinois (67), Kentucky (68), Villanova (69)

Bubble Profiles
Previously: February 26, Rhode Island and UAB

IN: St. Joseph's
Record: 17-9 (8-5, Atlantic 10), 9-4
RPI: 55
Key Wins: UMass (2), Villanova, Rhode Island
Key Losses: Holy Cross, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Duquesne, Xavier, LaSalle (home), St. Louis (home)

The Hawks are hanging by a thread after a terrible loss last night at home to the high-powered, genital-flaunting St. Louis Billikens. Before that, they looked to be safely in with wins over fellow Bubblers Rhode Island, Villanova and UMass twice. But now that they have lost four of six, including two at home to St. Louis and LaSalle, it might be hard for the committee to put the Hawks in over hotter teams like Southern Illinois and Kentucky. I mean, based on overall profile I would definitely take the Hawks over UMass, especially due to the head-to-head wins, but the Minutemen haven't been dropping easy home games lately. The saving grace for St. Joe's will probably be its nine road wins, which include victories over the Cuse, Siena, URI and UMass. It is 6-6 against the Top 100 but has three losses to sub-100 teams.

How To Stay/Get In: The three games left -- home against Temple and Xavier, at Dayton -- are all going to be very tough. A 2-1 record in those games should be good enough to tread water, unless one of the wins is over Xavier, in which case the Hawks ticket will be punched... barring a catastrophe, of course (all criteria for Bubble teams to get into the NCAAs should be read with condition, "barring a catastrophe" in mind). As for the A-10 tournament, given its homicidal nature, a first-round exit is completely possible but still totally unacceptable. A trip to the semis should be enough if the aforementioned 2-1 is achieved. The Committee is loudly boasting that they don't consider conference affiliation when selecting teams but I can't see how they don't take two A-10 Bubble teams unless the Conference Tourney turns into Baghdad.

OUT: Kentucky
Record: 16-10 (10-3, SEC), 3-5 road
RPI: 56
Key Wins: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi
Key Losses: Gardner Webb, Houston, UAB, San Diego, UNC, Indiana, UAB, Louisville, Florida,

I really want the Wildcats to find their way into the tournament, I really do. And that's basically because they are one of the fews teams that knows the odds against them but goes out and, you know, wins games. The non-conference schedule killed them as they earned no solid wins and had killer losses to Gardner Webb and some Bubble teams. But they also had some good losses against current top 10 teams (Indiana, UNC and Louisville), which should make the 16-10 record not as detrimental. In conference play, they have beaten every SEC team in tournament discussion besides Mississippi State and Florida, both of which they played on the road. It seems crazy for a top three team in the SEC standings to get left out, but given the insane year down there, it's very possible.

How To Stay/Get In: Well, win at Tennessee Saturday and you're in. That's probably a given (sigh... again, barring a catastrophe). But since that probably won't happen, the Cats need to win at South Carolina and beat Florida at home to end the regular season. That will get them to 12-4 in conference, give them a split against the one SEC Bubble team they didn't have an edge on and earn them a bye in the conference tourney. Once they are in Atlanta, to even be in the discussion, the Cats are going to need a trip to the semis or some properly timed, ahem, campaigning from Ashley Judd to the Selection Committee. I've got to think if they finish 12-4 in conference and make the SEC Final, which would probably involve beating Vanderbilt or Mississippi State on the way, would be enough to guarantee a spot, regardless of what happens elsewhere. This is clearly a different team than the one that lost to Gardner Webb and is definitely playing like one of the top 34 at-large teams right now.

***UPDATE***: All of this may be moot as Kentucky just got the awful news that freshman forward and all-around squad-carrier Patrick Patterson is out for the year with a fractured ankle. Just as the Cats look to solidify one of the best in-season turnarounds you'll ever see, and just as they head to Tennessee for a monstrous game, their postseason hopes essentially disappear. That really, really blows.

Bracketology, Just Because: Rhode Island and UAB Edition

Rhody the Ram, trying to flamboyantly tiptoe his way into the Big Dance

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Conference champs, the yellow cells, based on current league standings).

Bracketology

Last Four In: UMass, Florida, Syracuse, Rhode Island
First Four Out: UAB, Davidson, New Mexico, Villanova

Bubble Profiles
IN: Rhode Island
Record: 20-8 (6-7, Atlantic 10), 4-5 road
RPI: 55
Key Wins: at UAB, at Syracuse, Dayton
Key Losses: St. Louis, Massachusetts (2), St. Joe's, Xavier

The Rams are on the bottom of the A-10 totem pole after four straight losses and an 0-4 record against the other three potential tournament teams in that league (Xavier, St. Joe's, Massachusetts). Unless they can beat one or two of those teams in the conference tournament, they aren't getting in ahead of any of them. When compared with other Bubble teams outside of the A-10 it doesn't look as bad though. URI beat fellow Bubbler UAB on a neutral court and beat Syracuse at the Carrier Dome.

How To Stay/Get In: If URI can win its last three league games (at GW, at LaSalle, vs. Charlotte), it will be at 23 wins and 9-7 in probably the best non-BCS conference, which might not necessitate a deep conference tourney run. I've heard people say that the committee will take Xavier and whichever two of UMass, St. Joe's and URI makes it the furthest in the A-10, which makes decent sense but assumes that there are several Bubble teams capable of playing their way into the Tournament. There isn't; this is probably the weakest Bubble in recent memory and a 24-win season for an A-10 team, no matter how the Rams get there, should be enough.

OUT: UAB
Record: 19-8 (9-3, C-USA), 6-4 road
RPI: 67
Key Wins: Cincinnati, at Kentucky, Old Dominion, Houston
Key Losses: Georgia Southern, South Florida, Marshall, Memphis

The aforementioned UAB, seen above breathing fire even in spite of its RPI, will probably have its fate decided on how the committee views that heartbreaking and terrifying one-point loss to Memphis a couple weeks ago. On paper it's a loss but in reality it could be viewed as the ability to play at a tournament level. Perhaps even more important than that near-win was the win over fellow C-USA Bubbler Houston, which the Blazers beat last week, earning them the tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed in the C-USA Tournament. The problem is Houston has already played (and lost to) Memphis twice while the Blazers still have to travel to FedEx Forum in the last regular season game.

How To Stay/Get In: Assuming a loss to the Tigers, UAB will probably have to win the rest of its games and reach the C-USA semis to even have a chance. It will likely face Houston in that game with the loser probably done for good. However, even if they make the tourney finals they'll get Memphis a third time. If they lose again I guess there's no shame, but getting three cracks at Memphis and failing each time probably doesn't bode well, especially without a win over another tournament team. Beat Memphis once, however, and the Blazers punch their ticket.