San Diego Does Not Care For Your 7-3 Players, Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Well this is shaping up to be a considerably better day than yesterday. Nearly an hour after all the other afternoon games ended, the No. 13 Toreros (real nickname) of San Diego in the West region have knocked off Connecticut. It's the biggest upset of the tourney, topping Whale's Vagina's next opponent, No. 12 Western Kentucky, and its buzzer-beater over Drake.

The Huskies were without AJ Price for most of the game but that really shouldn't sour this win. USD played most of the second half without its star center Gyno Pomare, who despite his hygienically unfortunate first name, made Hasheem Thabeet his bitch for most of today. After missed free throws let the Huskies send it to OT, Pomare fouled out and the Toreros other best player pulled a groin and then fouled out himself, but not before hitting a massive shot down the stretch. Down one after the Huskies continued to make free throws while San Diego could not, the Toreros third option, De'Jon Jackson, hit a really tough fall away over Stanley Robinson to win the game. San Diego, which played in the WCC shadows of Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, have now beaten both en route to a conference title that got them into this tournament against all odds and, to top it off, outlasted both perennial league powerhouses in the Big Dance. Great stuff.

So yeah, the Madness is taking shape and that region has opened up for UCLA even more. And those fortunate enough to have tickets to that Tampa site should be rather pleased (even though the crowd, besides the Drake fans, was pretty bad and the announcing crew sounded like they wanted to get the hell out of there before the media buffet ran out).

And lastly, good for San Diego freshman Rob Jones. Jones was a monster today, scoring 14 points including a big shot over Thabeet late in OT and a circus shot, possibly the toughest of the tournament, late in regulation. I did a post earlier on the season on the amazing story by Gary Smith of Sports Illustrated on Jones, who is the grandson of crazed cult leader and mass suicide organizer Jim Jones. Jones' father, Jim Jr., would have been involved in that mass suicide if not for a basketball game that had him off the Jonestown plantation at the time. He hated the game because of all the guilt but recently learned to love it, when he reluctantly allowed Rob to pursue the game he loved and saw the success he could bring to a shamed family name. So as much as that upset means to everyone around that program, it's gotta mean a lot more for the Jones family.

Mid-Major Basketball Is Better Than Your Basketball

You are so getting free Skittles in school Monday, Steph

I didn't write anything about yesterday's games, partially because they were boring (besides Belmont-Duke of course), but mostly because I was not working and thus, drunk. But today I can be silent no more. While many complained about the mid-majors being paired up with each other in some kind of capitalistic basketball cannibalism by the Selection Committee, I am very happy that Gonzaga and Davidson played each other and that Drake and Western Kentucky played each other. Very happy. (Even if The Drake was heartbroken).

Those four squads, although only two of them were able to advance, treated this country to two of the best first round games in recent memory and hopefully showed the Selection Committee and CBS execs that when mid-majors play, more people should watch. Both games were back and forth, up and down, long range bombing celebrations of the little guy; a style that even Tennessee tried to impose on American, but which the former No. 1 was unable to perfect. These four teams not only played like the big boys and provided excitement that exceeded any similar-seeded match-ups between BCS schools, but they did for this country what they have been doing for hardcore hoops fans all season. Plant that seed of wonderment: "I wonder what they could do against a real team?"

And while the wording of that question is problematic in itself, it probably doesn't matter. If those two games and any that come after it make the Selection Committee and the TV networks realize that these teams can play with the big boys, provide moments like the big boys, and, unfortunately most importantly, bring in viewers like the big boys, well then the respect will have to follow. (Davidson and Western Kentucky beating their probable opponents, Georgetown and UConn, respectively, would help too.)

So all hail Courtney Lee, Adam Emmenecker, all of those damn Korvers and of course, the 8th grader Stephen Curry, 40-point scorer, slayer of Bulldogs, spelling bee champion. They are the new, unfamiliar faces of March Madness and they have officially kicked of this NCAA Tournament. Now when does that Butler-South Alabama game start?

The SSS 2008 NCAA Tournament Preview For Non-Psychics: Midwest Region

Waxing poetic about how lovely the NCAA Tournament is seems a bit irrelevant at this point. Certainly "One Shining Moment" will provide a sort of grab-bag of sappiness at the end of the whole thing that will you make you go, "Man, I love March Madness," sigh while looking longingly into the middle distance and then go watch The Hills or something. Now is not the time for such nonsense. March Madness is great! Work sucks! Gus Johnson is so exciting! There, that's done with. What we all want right now is objective, cold-hearted analysis on which teams will prevail and how to win your office pools. I wholeheartedly hope you find something like that. Instead I offer my own brand of regional previews, based solely around enjoying the tournament as much as possible. I'd say "Enjoy" but that goes without saying this time of year.

Previously:
East Region
West Region
South Region

Here is your last region, the Midwest. For the record, I've got Louisville, UCLA and Stanford in the Final Four so far. And once again, be sure to check the great Awful Announcing, which has the first round announcers for each game that can be used for Gus Johnson referential purposes regarding this preview.

1st Round Games
1) Kansas vs. 16) Portland State- The Vikings are the best 16 seed this year, a team that has beaten conference runner-ups Akron and Ooey Pooey (IUPUI) this year and lost to UCLA by "just" 21 and Washington State by "just" 12. So for those of you looking for some fancy pants No. 16 over No. 1, perhaps you have found that opportunity. Now you just need Kansas to come down with a rampant case of the gout, which even the most frigid temperatures or unsavory skanks of Omaha could probably not provide. A less debilitating disease may produce a cover of the spread though.

8) UNLV vs. 9) Kent State- A good example of just how mediocre college basketball this year is UNLV. Last year's team, a No. 7 seed, had at least three players that would be the best on this year's squad, a No. 8 seed. Wink Adams, the only holdover from last year's Sweet 16 participant, will have a very entertaining battle with Kent State "star" Al Fisher. Both programs are used to the NCAAs and getting some wins when there. Actually both of these teams are pretty similar overall, especially in that they will both be destroyed by Kansas in the second round.

5) Clemson vs. 12) Villanova- Along with the underdog Temple Owls and St. Joe's Hawks, Villanova remains the god-forsaken city of Philadelphia's best chance of any postseason win in any of the major sports at any level in 15 months. The Sixers, a team that willfully employs Calvin Booth, and the Flyers, a team that plays hockey, would be the best chance if those three Big Five members fail... for the next six months. Think of this when you are watching the games over the next couple days, and pray that the inevitable riot does not spread across all of civilization. I Am Legend.

4) Vanderbilt vs. 13) Siena- This is everyone's big, special upset pick for this year, not necessarily because they know anything about Siena -- or Vandy for that matter -- but because people on TV are talking about it. I still don't understand why no network, in the history of TV, has actually kept track of how well its analysts' picks have done. I mean, I know the reasons why they do not, but it seems unlikely they could continue to get away with it. Let me set the standard: If Siena does not beat Vanderbilt, we boycott any form of televised Bracketeering... and publicly stone Joe Lunardi.

6) USC vs. 11) Kansas State- YESSSS. Even my shallowly snark-filled approach to this tourney cannot muster up some cynicism for this game. In 40 minutes an NBA scout can take care of 30 percent of the 2008 Draft's top ten. And with Wisconsin, Fullerton, Portland State, UNLV and Kent State also playing in Omaha (along with Kansas), the Selection Committee owes at least that much to those scouts. I'm completely lost on whether to consider KSU a good team or not and this smells of one of those games where you pick USC to go the Elite Eight and they get blasted with 40 and 15 from Beasley. Tim Floyd did easily handle a similarly constructed Kevin Durant-led Texas team last year, which didn't even have a Crazy Person for a head coach, so there's that.

3) Wisconsin vs. 14) Cal-State Fullerton- Another of the Selection Committee's sick, twisted jokes (they need to get a hobby or something), the superslow Badgers (306th in pace nationally) will face the ADDirific Titans (15th in pace nationally). Some people think Fullerton can pull this one off and it's not completely insane because of how well they shoot the ball, but CSF's porous defense can make even Wisconsin look like a modern-day team (rumor has it they still practice with peach baskets). The Badgers offense will be so free and loose compared to Big Ten play, well Bo Ryan might just have to Superman a Hoe:


7) Gonzaga vs. 10) Davidson- I'm as pissed as you about the Selection Committee's decision to recreate the BracketBusters tournament, but this is a freaking great basketball game right here. The Zags used to be just like Davidson, a mid-major with a bunch of nonathletic shooters that play smart, rebound and pass well, but have cashed in that success for some fancy All-Americans that have diminished their chemistry and ability to avoid hallucinating and openly weeping. Davidson, on the other hand, has embraced the style of the original Gonzaga, playing big-time non-conference opponents and making frequent tourney trips with a team that's led by a recent spelling bee champion. All kinds of literary themes going on in this one; hopefully the smarties at Davidson can explain them to Heytvelt. Relate it to Harold and Kumar and he'll be fine.

2) Georgetown vs. 15) UMBC- The Retrievers aren't terrible, even though their nickname would suggest such; I don't even think a youth league team would be caught dead wearing a jersey referring to themselves as a highly domesticated animal. UMBC can shoot a little bit and will probably win the turnover battle with a recently reckless Georgetown team. The Hoyas simply cannot put teams away with consistency so the longer the... uh... let's call them the Vampires... the longer the Vampires can keep the score within shouting distance, the longer G'Town will have to exert some of the energy they'll need against a tough Gonzaga or Davidson team two days later. By the way, Nantz and Packer are doing this one so look for plenty of "man's best friend" puns from Nantz and, with John Thompson, Jr. around, plenty of racism from Packer.

To Watch For
Game You Will Really Wish Gus Johnson Was Announcing- One of the more underrated things about Gus is how much he understands basketball. The guy can identify player's tendencies and teams' strengths and weaknesses like few other announcers. That being said, he knows next to nothing about the players, teams, coaches or conferences relevant to that season. For instance, Gus will quickly recognize that Stephen Curry has a quick release and an ability to use a jab step or perfectly use a screen to get a shot off against a bigger opponent and his trusty relationship with point guard Jason Richards, but he'll have to ask his partner how to pronounce Curry's first name. That's why I wish he was doing that Davidson-Gonzaga game, because it'll be like a really knowledgeable basketball fan watching great players like Stephen Curry or Jeremy Pargo or Austin Daye for the first time. And screaming like an insane maniac all the while.

Game You Should Be Thankful Jim Nantz IS NOT Announcing- If the big Hoyas-Retrievers game seems unbearable, just be thankful he isn't doing the USC-Kansas State game. "Hold the Mayo" lines would be flying like crazy and he would certainly accuse Davon Jefferson of trying to steal his wallet.

Thing That Will Get Stuck In Billy Packer's Craw- Oh my goodness, if they give him 30 seconds of air time to talk about USC and Kansas State and all the one-and-doners, he might lose control of his bladder.

Most Ironic Commercial- During that KSU-USC game, any commercial promoting the benefits for student-athletes of a complete college education .

(If you can't tell, I'm really excited for that game.)

Talking Points That Will Make Your Brain Want To Die- Davidson is very similar to how Gonzaga once was. There is a considerable amount of NBA talent in that 6-11 game. OJ Mayo and Bill Walker are friendly acquaintances. Any success by Villanova should be seen as ironic because it barely made the Tournament.

Second Round Match-Up That Would Give CBS Execs Creamed Jeans- Davidson-Georgetown in Raleigh. A bunch of smart kids playing in the heart of North Carolina. Hmm, sounds familiar.

Second Round Match-Up That Would Give Hoops Fans Creamed Jeans, CBS Execs Flaccidity- Nothing jumps out here but Gonzaga vs. Georgetown would be pretty great, especially because the Zags might have more raw talent. CBS probably wants Mr. Heytvelt out of there ASAP.

Best NBA Prospect- Answer unnecessary.

Best Panamanian Super Liga Prospect- Villanova forward Shane Clark has already put a down payment on a Canal-side home.... with a jetski!

Most Likely Teabagging Scenario- As much as Roy Hibbert seems like a nice young man... I hope Jeremy Pargo puts his balls up in Big Roy's face.... For entertainment purposes of course.

Most Unexpectedly Hot Cheerleaders- Despite their pending doom, I've gotta think the girls from Fullerton leave every other team from this region in the dust. Especially Wisconsin. Their team probably doubles as the shot put squad.

Oh, And The Winner Of The Damn Thing- Kansas should waltz to the Elite Eight, but who they face is anyone's guess. I like USC to advance through because they should match-up against very similar, defensive-minded teams (Wisconsin and Georgetown), but of course will have vastly superior talent (the biggest stylistic problem they will face will be KSU actually). The Trojans just really need to take care of the ball against those two. The Jayhawks only beat USC by four back in December at the Galen Center and I think KU can win another close one and go on to San Antonio.

Friday's Picks: Big East and Pac-10 Semifinals, Patriot Championship

The stars will be out for tonight's battle of LA, USC v. UCLA

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Wednesday Night: Another two wins for me as Mount St. Mary's beat Sacred Heart (-2) in basically a high school gym with an outstanding atmosphere. And Portland State (-4.5) crushed Northern Arizona, not in a high school gym, at the freaking Rose Garden, where the Blazers play. I love this idea, by the way, I think more of the smaller conferences should have its final in a NBA arena, and give the kids that thrill. PSU gets its first ever bid and will probably be a No. 16 as well.

Patriot League, Colgate at American (-7)- The top-seeded Eagles survived a big scare in the first round when they hung on to beat Holy Cross by two. Colgate, the No. 3 seed, had a similar first-round scare against Lafayette. Actually this entire tournament has been full of excitement (as much excitement as the Patriot League can contain), including the "March Madness Has Begun" moment of the year. This game is on American's home court; the Eagles swept Colgate, have beaten Maryland and played Dayton tough this year. They have an outstanding backcourt, which includes Derrick Mercer, a former guard at St. Anthony's in New Jersey, who was featured in the outstanding book, The Mircale of St. Anthony, by Adrian Wojnarowski, which I recently finished. So I'm kinda rooting for them. These teams will pound the air out of the ball, which favors American's guard play and great three-point shooting. The Eagles have never been in the NCAAs so I suspect that arena, despite the 4:45 starting time will be sufficiently riotous. In a low-possession game it will still be tough to cover seven, though.
The Pick: American

Big East Semis, West Virginia vs. Georgetown (-3)- I continue to think Georgetown is a largely fraudulent team. It needed a record performance shooting threes to hold off Villanova and has had an incredible amount of luck in close games this season (43rd in the country in KenPom's luck rating, which doesn't even account for shitty referees). And on top of that, this entire bracket opened up for them to win this league, get a No. 2 seed... and possibly lose in the second round. Beware of the Hoyas. The problem is, unless they shoot like yesterday, they can't score. Not one player on this team, save for DaJuan Summers, who is only aggressive in about half his games, can create his own shot (although the addition of freshman Chris Wright, who has been hurt should help a lot). They turn it over a decent amount as well and rely very much on their great defense and the hope that the opponent doesn't get hot. That being said, West Virginia has got to be pretty exhausted by now, and as great as Joe Alexander is, the guy can't put a third straight insane game in, especially with Summers hounding him. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mountaineers pull it off, but the fraud of the Hoyas will continue.
The Pick: Georgetown

Big East Semis, Pitt vs. Marquette (-2)- I hate saying it, but Marquette is playing some amazing basketball right now. Defensively the Eagles have always been great but they have some legitimately good scorers now. Dominic James has settled into a non-star role, which is where he belongs, and Jerel McNeal is one of the more underrated players in the country. Add in Lazar Heyward, who came out of nowhere halfway through the season and the newcomer Maurice Acker, who should be a big-time player in this league, and suddenly Marquette is a watchable team, rather than a bricklaying crew. As for Pitt, it's kinda weird; based on its personnel, it looks a lot like a mid-major. An undersized PF at center, a small forward at the other spot and three guards. Of course, the Panthers have really good players, so that helps, but it's still going to be a problem against a team with size and good defenders like Marquette. Sam Young is suddenly good enough to carry a team like Pitt offensively, but I don't think they can score enough with the Eagles' new attack.
The Pick: Marquette

Pac-10 Semis, USC vs. UCLA (-8.5)- This should be a really great game at Staples. Good thing it's not on TV here, if I watched it, it would make every other game unenjoyable because it couldn't live up to UCLA-USC. Yeah, that's it.... shit.... Anyway, everyone knows these teams split the regular season series, and both teams are probably playing their best basketball of the season. All the stars are going to be there (I heard Gary Busey was showing up!) and I've gotta think both Love and Mayo are going to try and go crazy. It's probably not worth analyzing this one because it will be a defensive slugfest with only the incredible individual talent on the floor providing any baskets (basically like most Pac-10 games). These games are rarely decided on Xs and Os, just who can make shots and not crumble under the intensity. That's a big line for this series, and while UCLA will win, it won't run away with it.
The Pick: USC

Pac-10 Semis, Washington State vs. Stanford (-2)- I got to actually watch one of the Pac-10 quarters last night, the Cardinal's win over Arizona, and continue to think Stanford is a Final Four team. The whole offense revolves around dumping it down to a Lopez and watching as good things happen. They either score, draw a double and pass to the open man, get fouled or miss and one of the kamikaze glass-crashers from the perimeter gets a put-back. The thing about Brook is that he is still really unpolished as a scorer and yet catching the ball and immediately turning and shooting, no matter how many defenders are on him, is enough to score 20 a game because of his amazing touch and skill. The Cougars don't have the athleticism on the inside to stop these two guys (Robin is vastly improved on the offensive end), which is probably why the Cardinal swept Wazzou in two close games this year. But, I still question if Stanford's perimeter players can provide enough scoring and open shotmaking for the Cardinal to beat really good teams, even if the Lopez twins go off. And against a tenacious Cougar perimeter D, buckets will be hard to come by. It's really tough to beat a team of Washington State's caliber three times in a season. This will be a one or two possession game.
The Pick: Washington State

Championship Week Record: 11-2
Overall Record: 66-46-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Bracketology, Just Because: South Alabama and Illinois State

Doritos. Nacho cheesy goodness. The way to any Selection Committee members' heart

In the edict for those of us on the Intertubes that use words to describe college basketball in informed (hopefully) and entertaining (rarely) ways, the right to create a bracket is indelible. It's right there with making fun of Dick Vitale and finding Erin Andrews attractive in the "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness" portion of our Constitution. And even though you can go basically anywhere else to get one of these bad boys (including here, here, here and here), I'm going to post my projected bracket every Tuesday and Friday until Selection Sunday anyway, with each including a extra special bonus*: a profile of a Bubble team or two.
*bonus may not be extra or special

Since it's basically impossible to post an entire bracket in a Blogger post without burning the retinas of readers, you can check it out in beautiful yet annoying spreadsheet form by clicking the link below. (Hypothetical conference champs, the yellow cells, based on conference tourney seedings; confirmed auto-bids in teal or whatever that is).

Bracketology, March 13

I'm gonna be doing this every day until Selection Sunday now that the conference tourneys have started. This is going to probably be the most difficult field to project in a long time given the weakness of the Bubble. By my count there are 16 teams fighting for seven spots with some early-round upsets in the conference tournament or unexpected auto-bidders providing the potential to cloud it even more. For the record, here are the teams:

True Bubble: Massachusetts, Arkansas, Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona State, South Alabama, Mississippi -- they are in at this second, with UMass the "safest" and Ole Miss the least safe. Then you got -- Villanova, New Mexico, Illinois State, Dayton, UAB, St. Joe's, Virginia Tech, VCU, Maryland -- with the Cats the first out and Maryland needing a very deep run.

Bubble Profiles
Previously:
March 11, Arizona State and Mississippi
March 7, Ohio State and Florida
March 4, Maryland and New Mexico
February 29, St. Joe's and Kentucky
February 26, Rhode Island and UAB

IN: South Alabama
Record: 26-6 (16-2, Sun Belt), 7-4 road, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
RPI: 39
Key Wins: San Diego, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky (2)
Key Losses: Middle Tennessee State (2), Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, North Texas
The RPI is dwindling to the point where the Jags might be in now but will probably need help to stay in. After all, they can't play their way in because, you know, they don't have any games left. A semifinal Sun Belt tourney loss to Middle Tennessee State, the second of the year to the league's No. 5 seed, ended South Alabama's auto-bid hopes and gave it to its rival, Western Kentucky, which it beat twice this year. It's a shame because South Alabama did almost everything it should have as a low-major and if it had just gotten by MTSU and still lost to the Hilltoppers in the Final, I think the Jags would be pretty safe. The win over San Diego, in Anaheim, looks a lot better now that the Toreros are dancing and beating Mississippi State was huge. But on top of the bad losses, I'm not sure they can overcome the very near wins against two SEC squads, losing by three at Ole Miss despite battling back from 19-point halftime deficit and losing at Vanderbilt in double overtime. With the RPI in the 20s like it was a few days ago, maybe it would be different, but as it continues to plummet, the Jags should slowly drift out to pasture.

How To Stay/Get In: Pray... Or poison the following people: Chris Warren, Scottie Reynolds, Brian Roberts, James Harden, Jamar Butler and/or Bryce Taylor.

OUT: Illinois State
Record: 24-9 (13-5, Missouri Valley), 7-5 road, 0-5 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100
RPI: 35
Key Wins: Creighton (2), Southern Illinois (2), Wright State
Key Losses: Indiana, Kent State, Drake (3), Eastern Michigan, Indiana State

I'm completely baffled that this team is still in the discussion, so I am writing about this team only to voice my displeasure; their season is over and I have them out, but I cannot be silent. Inexplicably, Joey Brackets LOVES this team, along with New Mexico, for no apparent reason. I respect Mr. Lunardi, but I'm rather convinced anyone with access to KenPom.com (read: everyone) could reach an almost equivalent accuracy as his bracket projections. This team has NO Top 50 wins! And he has them safely in at 62. Even with Lunardi and that belligerent demonbird mascot on your side, you cannot hide from the truth Illinois State. This is another RPI that will start plummeting given Sunday's season-ending destruction at the hands of Drake, which basically made the Redbirds its bitch this season with a three-game sweep. Perhaps if they had held their own, and, you know, not lost by 30, the Birds would feel a little better. But when you rarely play on TV, haven't beaten anyone better than you, are playing with an auto-bid on the line and get a third crack at a Top 20, in-conference team, you should at least pass the eye test. That looked like an NIT team, even if Osiris Eldridge can leap over each and every Korver. Korver-leaping does not a Tourney team make. An 8-2 record in the last 10 might provide something to gripe about when they are left on the outside but it looks like the Valley is a one-bid.

How To Stay/Get In: Take a Committee member hostage.... Or just take away his Doritos.

Wednesday's Picks: Northeast and Big Sky Championships

This is not Northern Arizona's mascot... but, somehow it's close.

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: Well, for awhile there it looked like I had jinxed Butler the same way I did Gonzaga by picking against them, but thankfully they kept the Bubble in tact by holding against Cleveland State and pulling away to cover the 8.5 point spread. (Of course with Syracuse losing today, I really shouldn't care about the Bubble anymore). It broke up my perfect Championship Week streak, but whatever, it's worth the Earth returning to its axis. I also lost the Oral Roberts-Ooey Pooey pick, with ORU (-3) looking like a solid first-round upset pick ("Indiana Gets a Bitter Taste From Oral" will rule blogpost titles). Western Kentucky blew out Middle Tennessee State, as I suspected, as the Hilltoppers somehow are in the NCAAs with South Alabama in trouble.

Northeast, Mount St. Mary's at Sacred Heart (-2)- I'm not going to pretend to know anything about these teams besides what's on paper. It's the No. 3 vs. No. 4 seeds in the league after both teams knocked off Wagner and Robert Morris respectively in the semis. The winner will be a No. 16 seed or even play-in game participant. The game is at Sacred Heart, which won the only regular season meeting on the Mountaineers home court. It looks like there will be a pretty good battle at point between MSM's Jeremy Goode and Sacred Heart's Drew Shubik, who are 2 and 3 in the league in assists. In the teams' only brushes with decent teams, Sacred Heart lost to both Providence and Boston College by five this year while MSM actually beat Winthrop, lost to Oregon by eight and were destroyed by Oklahoma. Both teams play pretty quick so it shouldn't be all bad. I'll go for the Mountaineers due to beating an actual tournament team before.
The Pick: Mount St. Mary's

Big Sky, Northern Arizona at Portland State (-4.5)- Portland State earned the right to host this game by winning the regular season fairly easily. Arizona State placed second, but was swept by the Vikings in the regular season. It would appear the winner gets the right to be hammered by UCLA, but PSU actually played the Bruins this season, so they can't be matched up with them. The Vikings lost that game by 21 but held UCLA to 69 points, so that's something I suppose. They are also one of the better three-point shooting teams in the country, with 10 players having hit at least 10 this season. The Lumberjacks (real nickname) shoot it well too, but without nearly as many attempts and have beaten Western Kentucky this season, played Arizona tough and have Kyle Landry, the league's second leading scorer and third leading rebounder. Landry still finished behind PSU's Jeremiah Dominguez for POY however. The transfer guard is averaging 20 over the last four. I'll take the home team in this one and not give a shit if I'm right.
The Pick: Portland State

Championship Week Record: 9-2
Overall Record: 64-46-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Tuesday's Picks: Summit, Horizon and Sun Belt Championships

Your "I Bet I Could Beat AJ Graves In A Fight," Picture of the Day

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: I suppose it's fun and all that I ran my Championship Week record to 8-0 last night, but it's NOT fun what South Alabama and Gonzaga so carelessly did to the Bubble. San Diego not only covered the 7.5 points they were getting, but they beat down the Zags, completely stifling (and by "stifling," I mean, "letting Josh Heytvelt touch the ball") and stole a bid from the Bubble (South Alabama lost to Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis, which I didn't pick correctly and thus, infuriates me more). Anyway, that was annoying, but good for the Toreros or whatever. In the other three contests, George Mason (-8.5) covered by a half point, tempting the Committee to make them a No. 11 again to force millions of idiots to pick them to go to the Final Four (they can win A game, but let's be realistic). Davidson (-17) missed covering by one (yea, I got pretty lucky) and Siena destroyed Rider (although I still want my Sixers to take a long look at Jason Thompson this year), and appears to be a very dangerous No. 13 or 14 seed.

Summit, IUPUI vs. Oral Roberts (-3)- I don't care what IUPUI stands for, but I know that "funny" analysts call it Ooey Pooey, which is something that bloggers are probably going to have a field day with if they get in. It's been that kind of season (not that ORAL Roberts will be a letdown). I like this year's ORU team, although not as much as the Caleb Green/Ken Tutt editions. It has beaten Oklahoma State on the road and hung with some other major conference teams. In the BracketBusters the Eagles lost to Creighton but still impressed. The Robert Jarvis/Moses Ehambe is a worthy replacement I suppose, and I like point guard Adam Liberty too. As for Ooey Pooey, I got nothing on them. The Jags have a more potent offensive attack and are led by George Hill, who is the POY in the league and has carried them in this tourney. Ooey Pooey is the only team that was able to challenge ORU this year and the two game split in the regular season was decided by four points total. So it should be a good one. Both teams play pretty slow but I am going to have trouble believing ORU can slow down one of the more efficient offenses in the country, even if I haven't seen the Jags play. (Seriously, look at these offensive numbers.)
The Pick: Ooey Pooey

Sun Belt, Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky (-8.5)- The irony of South Alabama's win is that even though it gave the Hilltoppers a better shot at an auto bid, it basically wiped out their at-large hopes. A loss to South Alabama in the finals would have been forgivable, but a loss to Middle Tennessee State is not for a team on such perilous grounds. The Blue Raiders (real nickname) are very weird. A .500 regular season team and No. 4 seed in the conference, they have beaten South Alabama twice this season... but lost to Tennessee by 69. Conversely, WKU lost to Tennessee by six. So I have no idea what the hell to think. The Hilltoppers are led by league POY and 20-point scorer Courtney Lee, who also happens to be one of the better players in all of mid-major basketball, and have swept MTSU this year, winning by 11 and five. The Blue Raiders (why are they blue?!?) have a more balanced attack with four players averaging 9+ points and 4+ rebounds per game. By the looks of them, they are a pretty run of the mill mediocre mid-major team, which should be problematic because WKU is not.
The Pick: Western Kentucky

Horizon, Cleveland State at Butler (-9.5)- OK, I have to tread lightly here. First, Butler cannot lose this game. Simply cannot. It will destroy the already atrociously murky Bubble and cause tomorrow's Syracuse game vs. Villanova to be perhaps the most stressful of my life. Now, this is basically the same situation as the San Diego/Gonzaga game last night (except the higher seed is the home team), so I have to be careful about repeating my own jinx and taking Cleveland State. But whereas Gonzaga is some kind of new school mid-major that eschewed hustle, passing and shooting for All Americans, stoners and athletes, Butler is still a mid-major in appearance playing on level with the big boys. Butler, and especially its fans at Hinkel, know that there is more to a season than Sweet 16 runs. They want this conference and won't let the Vikings, who earned a split with the Bulldogs this year (both decided by five or less) and are the No. 2 seed, take the Horizon League that Butler still holds so dear.... At least that's what I'm telling myself. This game should be an all-out slugfest in a great atmosphere. Both teams play great defense and have some really outstanding, exciting players (Mike Green and AJ Graves on Butler; J'Nathan (real first name) Bullock and Cedric Jackson on Cleveland State). But I think Butler's shooting (37.6 from three) is too big an advantage over the Vikings (31.3 percent) in a game where knocking down the few open shots available is key. The line is set very well and I think Butler wins but Cleveland State sneaks in under the line, jinx be damned
The Pick: Cleveland State

Championship Week Record: 8-0
Overall Record: 63-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Monday's Picks: CAA, MAAC, West Coast and Southern Conference Championships

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: If Illinois State had just hung tough with Drake and lost by like 12 or so, the Redbirds would probably still feel pretty safe about getting an at-large bid. But instead, in a performance that probably earned the Bulldogs thousands of Sweet 16 trips in brackets across the country (and was one of the most efficient beatdowns I've seen this year), Illinois State lost by 30 to Drake (-2.5) and is suddenly a conference runner-up that got three shots at its league champion and blew them all. I know margin of victory isn't supposed to be a big deal but when you are barely every on TV and need to impress a selection committee, losing by 30 must leave a bad taste. On the other hand, when Love The Drake references start flying around your office in a couple weeks because of that game, don't forget who loved the Drake way back in mid-January. That was an incredible performance yesterday.

Metro-Atlantic, Rider vs. Siena (-3)- I'm getting the sense that Vegas has no idea how to handicap some of these conference tourney games. I suppose there is no reason to put too much time into it because anyone betting on the MAAC final will probably be dead in a few months anyway. I swear every game I've seen has been a 2.5 spread. Anyway these are the top two teams in the league and both are much better than your usual MAAC champ. Whichever team wins is going to scare some No. 3 seed in a couple weeks. Initially this looked like it would be a very high-scoring, very fast-paced game between two teams with very good athletes, but it might be toned down a bit with this being the third game in three nights and both teams sporting short benches. This one is worth watching for no other reason that Rider's Jason Thompson, a 7-footer that will be in the NBA soon. In the semis he played every minute, dropping 32 and 18 against Marist (he's average 20 and 12 on the year). The Saints lack the size to keep Thompson in check but have a three-headed monster of mismatches elsewhere. Edwin Ubiles, Kenny Hasbrouck and Alex Franklin are as good of a Big Three in mid-major basketball and lead a very efficient, very skilled offense that has won at Stanford this season. The teams split two regular season meetings, winning on each others courts and I think Thompson will go off. But you win these type of games by making the least mistakes and the surehanded Saints, will have their three stars trump Rider's one NBAer.
The Pick: Siena

CAA, William and Mary vs. George Mason (-8.5)- As someone who "covered" the CAA in college, there were a range of reactions to yesterday's outstanding semifinals. First, VCU is again the league's best shot at a deep tourney run and it was a shame to see them lose yesterday and probably get left out of the Dance. But, for a team like William and Mary, which has done such a great job of rebuilding a long-struggling program, to have a chance at March Madness is pretty neat as well. And of course, for George Mason to get another crack at the Tournament, especially for Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell, two outstanding seniors that have been to the Final Four, is all well and good too. Not sure who I'll be rooting for but I might curl up with a pint of Haagen Daaz to suppress all my emotions for this one. Anyway, this is the fourth game in four days for the Tribe and it just so happens to be against one of the most tourney-tested teams in mid-major basketball. I wouldn't bet against George Mason as a favorite in Richmond if Tony Skinn was checking their jockstraps before the game (he is not a gentle person when it comes to that region). I actually like how W & M matches up with the Patriots, especially with the Thomas v. Laimis Kuselius match-up up front, but I just don't see how they have the energy to keep this one close against a great George Mason team with a rabid fanbase.
The Pick: George Mason

Southern Conference, Elon vs. Davidson (-17)- Well everyone expected Davidson to be here, with its now 22 conference wins this year, but the No. 7 seed Phoenix, who have caught fire and won three straight nights in Charleston are a big surprise. It's a welcome surprise for Bubble teams around the country who need Davidson to make sure the SoCon is a one-bid league. If the Wildcats were to somehow lose, they would right there with Illinois State and VCU as the most perilous of Bubble teams. The large spread indicates that shouldn't be an issue. But covering might be. Davidson only beat Elon by 10 at home this year and by two on the road. The Phoenix held the Cats to its second and seventh lowest offensive efficiency ratings of the year, with the other five lowest coming to Duke, UCLA, UNC, Charlotte and NC State. Eighth-grader Stephen Curry had 36 in the home meeting but just 15 when going on the road against Elon. The Phoenix play a lot of guys, despite being in the bottom 50 teams in D-I in tempo. When you see them you will expect a sharpshooting squad but they are among the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation. Their "strength" is down low with two 6-8 forwards, one of which, Ola Atoyebi, is their leading scorer and rebounder. Davidson will win pretty easily and I'm gonna be watching this next game, but don't think Elon gets completely embarrassed. Plus, Elon has God, and a pugnacious one at that, on its side.
The Pick: Elon

West Coast, Gonzaga (-7.5) at San Diego- I tried to stay up for the St. Mary's-San Diego game last night but instead chose sleep and a functional day when I saw the Gaels up about 15 in the second half. When I awoke to see the Toreros had come back and won in double-overtime, in what sounds like it was an incredible game (34 combined points in second OT), I cursed those extra couple hours of sleep. If the Bulldogs win, it will be their fifth straight auto-bid and will cement a two-bid league. If San Diego wins, the West Coast gets an unprecedented three teams and snatches a bid from that mass of excrement that is this year's Bubble. This is probably an understatement, but that atmosphere is going to be batshit crazy tonight. As someone who gets an unusual, probably unhealthy enjoyment out of those late-night WCC games, the atmosphere tonight should be overwhelming. Plus, the game will be played in the Jenny Craig Pavilion, which means the fans will likely be hungry, cranky and eager to take out their issues of self-worth on an anonymous opponent. The Zags are coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the year in beating Santa Clara by four last night but its last loss to San Diego came eight years ago... in the West Coast Conference championship... in San Diego. I don't think history will repeat itself, but I think it will be close.
The Pick: San Diego

Championship Week Record: 4-0
Overall Record: 59-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Sunday's Pick: Missouri Valley Championship

I assure you, that is The Drake

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: Michael Jenkins tried his best to deflect some of the attention from that giant person that UNC Asheville (-2.5) plugged in the middle by scoring almost as much (33) as the entire Asheville team (48). The Eagles won by 18 but it was still a very entertaining with great defense, good athletes and of course, Kenny George (who, somehow, is a great passer with a nice shooting touch; he just doesn't rebound or dunk, which are widely considered things a 7-8 person should be able to do). Austin Peay (-3) and Belmont (-6) both rolled to get into the Big Dance, just as I had expected.

Missouri Valley, Illinois State vs. Drake (-2.5)- This is the match-up everyone, especially members of Bubble teams across the country, wanted. The Valley will get its two bids no matter what and the Syracuses and New Mexicos of the world can breath easier (that is, if being a completely mediocre team allows one to breath easy). That's not to say this game is meaningless, winning this conference is an incredible feat any year and to win the regular season AND tournament, like Drake has a chance to do, would be nuts (especially for a team picked to finish ninth in the preseason). Plus, the Bulldogs, who hopefully have proved they are for real by now, might be able to get a No. 4 or 5 seed with a win, which would be their third over Illinois State this year. This is going to be a typical Valley final with a slowed down, grind-it-out, make your threes, take care of the ball, awake your fans with the occasional dunk from Josh Young feel to it. It will be a battle of the super sophs Young for Drake and Osiris Eldridge, which is not a character in the Lion King, for the Redbirds. But I think this one, in a game where the ball pressure and intensity will be sky high, is going to come down to who can avoid turnovers and not give the other easy baskets. Therefore.... GOT TO LOOOOVVVVVVVEEEEEE THE DRAKE.
The Pick: Drake

Championship Week Record: 3-0
Overall Record: 58-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Saturday's Picks: Big South, Ohio Valley and Atlantic Sun Championship Games

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

OK, the regular season is done, but that doesn't mean the being wrong Picks are. I finished with a 55-44-4 record, which I suppose is respectable. For Championship Week I will pick every Conference Championship and also the semifinals for the BCS leagues. Today we've got three league title games, all pretty solid leagues, with one game, Winthrop vs. UNC Asheville, that is going to start in about 15 minutes (I still haven't made it out of bed) and should be very entertaining. (Insert Let The Madness Begin comment here).

Big South, Winthrop at UNC Asheville (-2.5)- There is a reason for the "at" in the match-up, the game is on Asheville's home court. This should be a really great game. Winthrop has dominated the league lately, but the Bulldogs won the regular season title, beating the Eagles twice. If Asheville loses at home after beating the Big South overlord twice already and can't snap the Eagles three-year championship streak, well let's just say it would suck to be in Asheville today (especially when you are 7-8 like Kenny George). For some reason, Kenny George is top search term that leads people to this here blog, even though I only wrote about him once and it was for getting dunked on. Perhaps it says something about my writing (or my readers) that people only come here to see an inhumanly large man get embarassed on video but I'll choose to believe otherwise. As goofy as the guy is, he is an incredibly effective at deterring offenses. You basically can't drive into the lane without a kick-out or a clever dump-off in mind and expect to score. So Winthrop, which is a decent three-point shooting team at 37 percent is going to need a hot night from star guards Chris Gaynor and Michael Jenkins. Look, these two teams know each other so well, strategy can be thrown out the window. The winner is going to be who can knock down shots and get after each other defensively. I think Winthrop will do that; they aren't ready to give up this league just yet, even if they have to climb eight feet in the air to get it.

Ohio Valley, Tennessee State vs. Austin Peay (-3)- This one is being played in Nashville but don't think that gives Tennessee State any advantage. The Tigers made the OVC Finals as a No. 6 seed and are playing a team that is clearly the class of the conference, an Austin Peay team that went 16-4, won the league by three games and has beaten Texas Tech this year. That being said, the previous two meetings this year were split, with the home team winning each one by four or less. The Governors' strength is their frantic defense that tries to force a ton of turnovers (they are first in the nation in steal percentage) but in both games this season Tennessee State found a way to take care of the ball. Both teams have a pretty balanced attack although State's Bruce Price is probably the player most worth watching. The Tigers like to push the pace and its Price that both runs the show and jacks up the shots. Austin Peay has one of the better defensive guards in the league, the 5-9 Derek Wright, but will probably put one of their bigger wings on Price. This should be an entertaining up and down game, that will be close than the seeds indicate, but I don't see Tennessee State's run continuing.
The Pick: Austin Peay

Atlantic Sun, Jacksonville vs. Belmont (-6)- This league was the early season darling after Gardner Webb beat Kentucky, Mercer beat USC and Belmont took down Cincinnati. But it's likely this game is for a No. 14 or 15 seed, albeit a dangerous one. Belmont has owned Jacksonville recently, winning the last five meetings. The Bruins have also beaten Alabama this year and took Wright State to overtime. They run a fast-paced balanced game that includes an incredible amount of threes. They are No. 7 in the country in three-pointer/two-pointer ratio, third in three-point attempts and first in made threes. And reaching that number is a largely team effort (now you can see why Belmont would be a dangerous 14 seed). The Dolphins (real nickname) are the No. 2 seed despite having an eight-game losing streak in the non-conference slate that included losses to UAB, Michigan State, Georgetown and South Alabama. They play a much slower game and shoot very few threes so this should be a real clash of styles. Jacksonville does defend pretty well, especially beyond the arc, but look for Belmont's pace to force the Dolphins into turnovers, bad shots and cans of tuna.
/sorry
The Pick: Belmont

Championship Week Record: 0-0
Overall Record: 55-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Your Gratuitous BracketBuster Preview

If you can will yourself to ignore all of this Kelvin Sampson excruciating minutiae fun, you may have noticed we've got our first really big, important college hoops weekend coming up. Bubbles are being formed, conference races shaping up, Gus Johnson has begun drinking 12 cups of coffee per day and to kick off the March precursor we get the BracketBusters, beginning tonight. Despite a history of bad decisions by the media and its college basketball coverage, the BracketBusters was a great idea, so it's only fitting that we take advantage of such rare competence and watch the hell out of these games. (Also, there are a ton more teams involved in this that just aren't on TV, here is a full schedule.)

I've talked about "Point of Reference Games" -- where good, under-the-radar teams finally get a nationally televised chance to give casual fans a point of reference when eventually deciding if these obscure squads are first-round losers or Sweet 16 Cinderellas -- and the BracketBusters is founded on that principle. So here is your preview of the ESPN(2) contests and a couple others that might matter in March. All games are Saturday unless listed otherwise.

And Kyle Whelliston of ESPN.com and Mid-Majority has a great preview as well but it does not include jokes about religion, mid-Westerners or one-night stands as this does.

Davidson at Winthrop, Friday 7 ET ESPN2- For a preview of this game check out Friday's Pick.

Virginia Commonwealth at Akron, 11 a.m. ET ESPN2
The Skinny: The Rams (RPI: 60) should be a bit perturbed that they didn't get a better match-up than this. That's not to say Akron (RPI: 91) isn't a good team and a road win wouldn't be impressive, but for a team looking to boost its resume in case of a pitfall in the always tough CAA Tournament, this game is an almost no-win situation. VCU, one of the best defensive teams in the country (fourth in eff. FG% defense, tops in 3-PT defense in country) is going to get what they want, which is a slow, defensive-minded game.
Key Factor: The Zips (real nickname) are a good three-point shooting team with Nick Dials and Cedric Middleton, but probably haven't seen the type of smothering ball pressure on the perimeter (not to mention the length inside that will give Akron leading scorer and recently injured Jeremiah Wood fits) that VCU will provide. Well, actually they have once, they played partial VCU clone Winthrop in December and shot 35.5 percent from the field and 7-27 from three in a 68-58 loss.
To Watch For: The one thing the Zips have going for them is that abysmal 11 a.m. starting time. A star like Eric Maynor usually isn't going to be asleep on a Friday until like 6 the following morning. I've gotta think when you're making the Walk Of Shame to the team bus, it's a bit of a disadvantage.
Final Score: VCU 62, Akron 58

George Mason at Ohio, 1 ET ESPN2
The Skinny: Both teams had an inside track on a decent at-large case until recently. Mason (RPI: 67) has lost two of four and will need some of its patented magical NCAA Tournament pixie dust again to make the dance (and will probably have to go through VCU again to do it.) Ohio (RPI: 62), which owns a win at Maryland, has lost three of its last five and is third in the East division of the MAC.
Key Factor: This game will feature some great battles on the inside with both teams strength lying in the frontcourt. Folarin Campbell and double-double man Will Thomas (16 and 10), two holdovers from the Patriots Final Four run, will match up against Jerome Tillman and double-double man Leon Williams (15 and 10), which should make entry passing, foul trouble and reliable spot up shooting the deciders (not George W. Bush, contrary to popular belief) in this game.
To Watch For: In a very deliberate game like this, you have to favor a team that executes in the half-court and takes care of the ball like George Mason. You also have to favor George Mason because it is clearly a team with divine powers and Jim Larranaga an obvious John From Cincinnati.
/references shitty, abstract TV show
Final Score: George Mason 70, Ohio 63

Creighton at Oral Roberts, 3 ET ESPN2
The Skinny: I've seen Creighton (RPI: 71) play once this year and I thought I was watching an NCAA Tournament team. Perhaps I was hallucinating. Since that game (Jan. 15 at Northern Iowa) the Blue Jays are 5-5 and 0-4 on the road, ending their at-large hopes. Although I am hearing they will still play this game anyway, so let's talk about their opponent. Gone from ORU (RPI: 46) are 12-year players Caleb Green and Ken Tutt, leaving behind a group of likely Christian Fundamentalists who have smited their Summit League opponents to a 15-1, first place conference record. Four of the Golden Eagles losses are at Texas, Texas A & M, Arkansas and Utah State, with the other two a three-point loss and an OT loss, both on the road. A win here would give them a slight chance (perhaps with the help of some divine intervention, huh? maybe?) at giving the committee something to think about.
Key Factor: This is a great Point of Reference game because if either team gets in, it will be capable of winning a game in March. Despite playing the typical mid-major game of deliberate offense, solid D and timely shooting, ORU actually has the personnel of a major conference school. They are 6-8 (Marcus Lewis) and 6-10 (Shawn King) up front which results in a solid interior defense and have decent quickness on the perimeter. Creighton is going to run a bunch of guys out there, many of whom will be part of the Korver family, play a bit quicker than most Valley teams and will try to turn pressure into turnovers.
To Watch For: God.
Final Score: Oral Roberts 73, Creighton 69

Nevada at Southern Illinois, 4:30 ET ESPNU
The Skinny: Wow! Nevada and Southern Illinois! We could see both these teams in the Elite Eight!... waits for right time to break the news...waits for it... sigh... No, retarded hoops fan, these are not the Nevada (RPI: 73) and SIU (RPI: 58) teams you are used to. These former mid-major darlings have fallen on hard times this season (and may be cooperating on a jealousy-fueled murder plot of Butler, which doesn't even return either team's phone calls anymore). Each is in third in its respective conference, but will need an auto bid to cause a Tourney ruckus.
Key Factor: We do, however get to see some really solid players, most notably Nevada's sophomore center JaVale McGee and senior forward Marcellus Kemp and Southern Illinois' Randal Falker. McGee is an NBA prospect, which means he will likely crush the hopes and dreams of Wolf Pack fans by leaving early, but hey, why should we care! Kemp put his name in last year but decided to return and is averaging 20 per game this year. Probably still gonna be a second-rounder anyway. And Randall Falker is one of the great mid-major players you'll ever see. A bruiser, great defender and improving offensive presence, Falker will be matched up on McGee and his ability to stay out of foul trouble and limit the big man will go a long way to deciding this one.
To Watch For: The Salukis' struggles this year have not carried over to their incredible home court advantage, with their only two losses coming to Indiana and Butler. Nevada doesn't have the most reliable ballhandlers so expect the crowd to smell blood and lead their oddly named squad to triumph.
Final Score: Southern Illinois 69, Nevada 60

Drake at Butler, 5 ET ESPN2
The Skinny: Ah, here we go. This is what happens when networks use common sense to pick match-ups. No one ever would have thought Drake-Butler would be a watchable game and lo and behold we have one of the best mid-major match-ups of the season. Both teams are in the NCAAs already so this is about seeding. Butler (RPI: 17) has a legit shot at a No. 3 seed while Drake (RPI: 15) is probably looking at something in the 6-8 range after losing two of the three.
Key Factor: Despite being mildly obsessed with The Drake (mostly due to the Seinfeld reference possibilities) I haven't seen them play this year. No one has. That's why this game should be so great. There is no secret to what the Bulldogs do though, which is lull you to sleep on the offensive end until they get an easy basket and never ever turn the ball over. Butler basically does the same thing, except better. You better make sure there are no gas leaks in your house when this game tips because you will be out cold before the first TV timeout (also you don't want to be poisoned, so there's that).
To Watch For: The big match-up is in the backcourt with Butler's battle-tested duo of AJ Graves and Mike Green clashing with Drake's top two scorers Josh Young and Leonard Houston. But the key to the game could be Butler freshman Matt Howard, who Drake has no answer for but tends to take himself out of games with foul trouble. When he gets going the three barrage begins and Drake doesn't defend the line all that well.
Final Score: Butler 58, Drake 48

Kent State at St. Mary's, Midnight ESPN2
The Skinny: With the Gaels (RPI: 26) already in and focused merely on vanquishing the Zags in a battle for West Coast supremacy (and I believe free Taco Bell), this is a HUGE game for Kent State (RPI: 40). The Flashes have wreaked havoc in March before and currently sit atop the MAC but have just one non-conference win (George Mason) to hang their hat on. If they travel across the country and beat a really good St. Mary's team, they should be on the good side of the Bubble, at least for the time being.
Key Factor: Kent State has a chance in this game if they slow the tempo and make St. Mary's play in the halfcourt. The Gaels are still pretty good in the halfcourt and it will be tough to slow them down in the coffin-like cozy gym they have there. But the Flashes should be happy with "a chance" to pull this one off. I do like their ability to match up with Mills in the backcourt but it's going to be tough for a small Kent team to stop Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan. If this game was at Kent State it would be a very even match up, though.
To Watch For: Will St. Mary's, and its fans, care enough? The Gaels have third place San Diego coming in Monday and travel to Gonzaga for a vengeance game next week. Frankly they have bigger fish to fry (or tofu or whatever the fuck they eat out there). If they come out flat against a desperate, but solid mid-major this won't be a gimme.
Final Score: St. Mary's 78, Kent State 65

Wright State at Illinois State, Sunday 6:30 ET ESPNU
The Skinny: With the first-place teams in the Horizon and Valley facing off in Drake-Butler, it might overshadow another important game between the second-place teams in those leagues. Whichever team wins this might fool themselves into thinking an at-large isn't a complete pipe dream. Wright State (RPI: 70) beat Butler to earn the auto-bid last year and have beaten the Bulldogs this season, with a chance to sweep next week. Illinois State (RPI: 52) is second in a usual multi-bid Valley but is 4-5 in its last nine, a streak that began with a loss to The Drake.
Key Factor: Both teams do that whole good defense, boring offense, good shooters thing that mid-majors love so much but also both have rising stars leading their respective teams from the backcourt. Sophomores Osiris Eldridge of Illinois State and Vaughn Duggins of Wright State should be a great match-up of likely future POYs in their leagues.
To Watch For: Shifty Mid-Westerners
Final Score: Wright State 54, Illinois State 52

Hooray For Links! February 21

I was never a big proponent of doing link dumps and the like on this site because, well, it didn't really make sense to me. Why would I simply reproduce things that are already out there? But as I did my own scouring of the Intertubes for college hoops content, I realized there was just too much quality (and, at times, utterly awful) stuff out there to simply leave untapped. So I give you Hooray For Links! which should appear at completely random intervals. Because without links, it's not really a blog, it's just a place to put thoughts I might not want to forget.

Them links be after the jump.
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- Before we get into anything of substance, great Louisville blog Card Chronicle shares this video of a rapping UL fan, makes world worse place. Reminds me of a young Ghostface. I really should've dedicated a single post to this.

- I really enjoyed Grant Wahl's article in Sports Illustrated a couple weeks ago on the Dribble-Drive Motion Offense that everyone seems so excited about. Now, if you aren't a hardcore basketball person, this whole piece is a waste of your time. It's an in-depth look at how the philosophy was originated, how it works, who is using it and what personnel suits it best. If you enjoy dunks, cheerleaders and screaming at the TV, you probably shouldn't read this. Anyway, the DDM offense has been made most popular by John Calipari and Memphis, which is odd because the Tigers don't really have the ideal players (i.e. jumpshooters) for the offense. But they do have Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts, who are both perfect for the penetration and kick offense. They also have Joey Dorsey, who is ideal for this offense because it requires no post scorer and puts a team's big man on the weak side of the ball for offensive rebounds and drive-and-dishes. Still, you wonder if the shooting will be Memphis' tragic flaw. The offense was created by Vance Walberg, who was a JuCo coach at the time, then got a job at Pepperdine and recently resigned/got fired (the one problem with the article is it makes little mention of Walberg's tenure and departure at Pepperdine). Over 300 teams across the country, at all levels of play, now use it and the article contains praise from Larry Brown and Bob Hurley. So if your retinas aren't singed from Bruce Pearl's suit (by the way, the Vols are perfect for DDM and they don't run it), look for that offense Saturday night.

- Kansas State Head Coach and Crazy Person, Frank Martin seems to be getting a lot of love for KSU's success this season and this feature by Chip Brown at the Dallas Morning News continues that trend. Martin, despite being a raging lunatic on the sidelines, actually does seem like he cares about his kids and knows the game. HOWEVA, he still has a very shady past and it seems like no one knows about it besides me and Robert Andrew Powell, the Miami New Times reporter who broke the 1998 story on Martin fabricating addresses for the state champion high school team he coached (which included Steve Blake and Udonis Haslem), an investigation that led to his resignation. Certainly people deserve second chances and performance speaks for itself, but read the 1998 story and then read Brown's feature and see if there aren't some serious contradictions in some of Martin's "do it the right way" quotes.

- I don't like pointing out when I'm right -- actually, who am I kidding, of course I do -- but back at the end of January I had post on the four teams I thought were capable of winning a championship. I picked Kansas, UNC, UCLA... and Louisville. The CHN message board destroyed me for this at the time and much time-wasting vitriol ensued. Well we all know what Louisville has done since and in a recent post at the fabulous Basketball Prospectus the fabulous Ken Pomeroy (I'm not gay) pegged the Cardinals as his "No. 6" team behind the obvious top five of Memphis, Duke, UNC, Kansas and UCLA (this was posted on Feb. 13, so I figure Tennessee is now in there, moving Louisville to No. 7... but I was still right! /stares into distance).

- I've been following the bizarre story of Tim Parmeter, Eastern Arizona JuCo coach who, as originally reported by Gary Parrish, was coaching through the murder-suicide of his ex-wife and child but was recently fired amid allegations that he had a sexual relationship with a 16-year old while he was married. I'm not going to elaborate any further on it, and I've gotten some comments here that were both interesting and abhorrent, but if you haven't seen this bizarre story, here is a good follow up from the Arizona Republic.

- I'm really sick of the Kelvin Sampson thing and, besides posting on The Big Lead's anonymous source that said he was going to be fired last Friday which obviously turned out to be wrong, I'm going to ignore it on here. But this piece from Andy Katz served as a great one-stop source for all the nonsense surround Sampson.

- Against all odds, ESPN.com's college basketball coverage has been outstanding lately. In the beginning of the year they just seemed to regurgitate the same played-out storylines but there have been a number of really good, deep pieces lately. I'd like to think a big part of that is the addition of Philly's own Dana O'Neill, former Philly Daily News writer, who turned in a GREAT feature on Alcorn State and the unglamorous life of basketball in the SWAC. It's long but a great read for those sick of the power conference slobbering.

- Keeping with the ESPN theme, Chris Low takes a good look at the long, hard journey of Tennessee-Martin's Lester Hudson, who is one of the most talented players in the country. Hudson has overcome a rough childhood and academic problems to make it to Division I, and he is probably is good enough to play in the major conferences.

- And one more to throw at you, Heather Dinich's feature on Towson junior Tony Durant, who just happens to be the older brother of Kevin Durant. It's a great look at the odd emotional predicament Kevin's success has caused for Tony, who I somehow didn't even know about until I read this piece.

- Two posts from fellow Ravenous Shark Fightin' Blue Hen Dan Steinberg at the outstanding DC Sports Bog. First a great reaction to the idiot court storming from Syracuse fans when the Orange beat Georgetown at home last week. Second, an ever greater post, a report from last night's Virginia Tech-Maryland game where Dorenzo Hudson puked on the floor. If you are a sick, twisted freak here is the video.

- This Deadspin post has all sorts of Bob Knight goodness. Apparently current Nets coach and former Indiana manager was a bit of a douche back in the day, and may have taped Bob Knight giving a terrifying, profanity-laced tirade at halftime of a game, which has made its way onto the Intertubes. Within the post is the story on Frank and audio of Knight's shitstorm. And here is Terry Hutchens original story on the tape.

- Awful Announcing notices something that I too have noticed recently. Brent Musberger (pictured above) is careening toward senility (during a college game he blurts out that the Wizards want to trade Caron Butler!). Between this, his insistence on calling every player only by his first name ("What a rebound by Jamarcus") and his bonechilling ogling of Erin Andrews (I know, pot/kettle/black), I am worried Brett might poop himself during a conference championships game this year. And if only for the comment section, here is Deadspin's approval rating on Musberger. (Yes, I've also found the Brent Musberger Drinking Game, here's to binge drinking Brent!).

- This story has been written about 12 million times but in case you just can't get enough Duke-hating, some fella at MSN tries his hand at explaining why nobody likes the Blue Devils.

- From Scott Van Pelt Style, apparently former Duke forward and obnoxious towel waver Reggie Love is a bodyguard for our next President Barack Obama.

- From the motherland CHN, a nice column on Gonzaga, specifically the dichotomy between Josh Heytvelt and Jeff Pendergraft. Kinda follows a previous sentiment I had on the Zags that with all these All-Americans they have lost the scrappiness and chemistry that made those old Gonzaga teams so great.

Year of the Mid-Major!... Alright, Maybe Not

Yes, those are the faces of mid-major basketball. A 9-year-old and a poltergeist. But that's what makes them perfect underdogs. They just look like they should lose to the Goliaths of college hoops. Unfortunately for Maryland last year and maybe UNC tonight, they don't back down in the face of, you know, regular-looking programs. Tonight's UNC-Davidson game is a nice early-season look at how mid-major stacks up against the big boys and a chance for the Wildcats to maybe set a tone for March.

That's where the problem starts. Even though the Atlantic Sun is ravaging our preseason tourneys and Southern Illinois, Gonzaga, Butler, VCU and Davidson should be better than ever and hovering in or around the top 25 like few mid-majors have before, the well might run dry after that.

Now this all depends on what your idea of "success" is for mid-majors. Some think that one or two mid-majors making deep tournament runs is all you need, but I tend to look at how many bids the non-BCS conferences get and how many times Billy Packer's bursts a blood vessel on Selection Sunday. You know, important shit. And the bottom line for this year is, no matter how deep those underdogs go, there could be an overwhelming amount of BCS teams in the tourney this year.
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The Missouri Valley is off to a rough start. As Garry Parrish notes in his aptly named notebook, Bradley and Missouri State, picked 2nd and 3rd in the Valley, behind Southern Illinois, had some nasty losses early. The gatekeeper of all that is mid-major, Kyle Whelliston, thinks a league that got an amazing four in 2006, might be a one-bid league this year and the MVC's commish doesn't necessarily disagree.

Whelliston's outstanding piece goes on to look at the other mid-major conferences to try and find some more bids. The CAA, WAC and A-10 are set up to be this year's torchbearers. But besides George Mason and VCU in the Colonial, I'm not seeing a lot of promise. Drexel and Old Dominion lost key players to graduation. UNC-Wilmington will be good with TJ Carter back, but making a leap from 7-22 to the NCAAs isn't likely. The WAC has some intriguing teams but New Mexico State is 0-2 and Nevada lost Fazekas, Sessions and then a season-opener to Central Florida. Utah State looks like the WAC's best bet but unless Fresno steps up, that too could be a one-bid league. The usually reliable Mountain West is down this year and I don't see anyone in the WCC or Horizon joining Gonzaga and Butler.

The A-10 might be mid-major's best shot. St. Joe's almost knocked off my Orange last night and St. Louis gave a decent showing at Pitt. Xavier should be good but lost to Miami (OH) the other night. Dayton, Fordham and maybe Charlotte should at least provide a nice RPI for the top dogs. Joe Lunardi, a man who probably puts his choice of salad dressing in bracket form (but here's the thing, he picks Thousand Island every time), has the MVC, A-10, CAA, MWC and WAC getting 2 each, the rest going to BCS schools (Big East 8, Pac-10 7, ACC 6).

So don't get your panties in a bunch if Davidson hangs with UNC tonight (unlikely by the way) or Southern Illinois stays in the top 10 all year. We'll see the, by now, usual mid-major suspects in the Sweet 16 but it's going to be mostly big programs and big names come March. Alas, Billy Packer's head will stay perilously unexploded.