Friday's Picks: Big East and Pac-10 Semifinals, Patriot Championship

The stars will be out for tonight's battle of LA, USC v. UCLA

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Wednesday Night: Another two wins for me as Mount St. Mary's beat Sacred Heart (-2) in basically a high school gym with an outstanding atmosphere. And Portland State (-4.5) crushed Northern Arizona, not in a high school gym, at the freaking Rose Garden, where the Blazers play. I love this idea, by the way, I think more of the smaller conferences should have its final in a NBA arena, and give the kids that thrill. PSU gets its first ever bid and will probably be a No. 16 as well.

Patriot League, Colgate at American (-7)- The top-seeded Eagles survived a big scare in the first round when they hung on to beat Holy Cross by two. Colgate, the No. 3 seed, had a similar first-round scare against Lafayette. Actually this entire tournament has been full of excitement (as much excitement as the Patriot League can contain), including the "March Madness Has Begun" moment of the year. This game is on American's home court; the Eagles swept Colgate, have beaten Maryland and played Dayton tough this year. They have an outstanding backcourt, which includes Derrick Mercer, a former guard at St. Anthony's in New Jersey, who was featured in the outstanding book, The Mircale of St. Anthony, by Adrian Wojnarowski, which I recently finished. So I'm kinda rooting for them. These teams will pound the air out of the ball, which favors American's guard play and great three-point shooting. The Eagles have never been in the NCAAs so I suspect that arena, despite the 4:45 starting time will be sufficiently riotous. In a low-possession game it will still be tough to cover seven, though.
The Pick: American

Big East Semis, West Virginia vs. Georgetown (-3)- I continue to think Georgetown is a largely fraudulent team. It needed a record performance shooting threes to hold off Villanova and has had an incredible amount of luck in close games this season (43rd in the country in KenPom's luck rating, which doesn't even account for shitty referees). And on top of that, this entire bracket opened up for them to win this league, get a No. 2 seed... and possibly lose in the second round. Beware of the Hoyas. The problem is, unless they shoot like yesterday, they can't score. Not one player on this team, save for DaJuan Summers, who is only aggressive in about half his games, can create his own shot (although the addition of freshman Chris Wright, who has been hurt should help a lot). They turn it over a decent amount as well and rely very much on their great defense and the hope that the opponent doesn't get hot. That being said, West Virginia has got to be pretty exhausted by now, and as great as Joe Alexander is, the guy can't put a third straight insane game in, especially with Summers hounding him. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mountaineers pull it off, but the fraud of the Hoyas will continue.
The Pick: Georgetown

Big East Semis, Pitt vs. Marquette (-2)- I hate saying it, but Marquette is playing some amazing basketball right now. Defensively the Eagles have always been great but they have some legitimately good scorers now. Dominic James has settled into a non-star role, which is where he belongs, and Jerel McNeal is one of the more underrated players in the country. Add in Lazar Heyward, who came out of nowhere halfway through the season and the newcomer Maurice Acker, who should be a big-time player in this league, and suddenly Marquette is a watchable team, rather than a bricklaying crew. As for Pitt, it's kinda weird; based on its personnel, it looks a lot like a mid-major. An undersized PF at center, a small forward at the other spot and three guards. Of course, the Panthers have really good players, so that helps, but it's still going to be a problem against a team with size and good defenders like Marquette. Sam Young is suddenly good enough to carry a team like Pitt offensively, but I don't think they can score enough with the Eagles' new attack.
The Pick: Marquette

Pac-10 Semis, USC vs. UCLA (-8.5)- This should be a really great game at Staples. Good thing it's not on TV here, if I watched it, it would make every other game unenjoyable because it couldn't live up to UCLA-USC. Yeah, that's it.... shit.... Anyway, everyone knows these teams split the regular season series, and both teams are probably playing their best basketball of the season. All the stars are going to be there (I heard Gary Busey was showing up!) and I've gotta think both Love and Mayo are going to try and go crazy. It's probably not worth analyzing this one because it will be a defensive slugfest with only the incredible individual talent on the floor providing any baskets (basically like most Pac-10 games). These games are rarely decided on Xs and Os, just who can make shots and not crumble under the intensity. That's a big line for this series, and while UCLA will win, it won't run away with it.
The Pick: USC

Pac-10 Semis, Washington State vs. Stanford (-2)- I got to actually watch one of the Pac-10 quarters last night, the Cardinal's win over Arizona, and continue to think Stanford is a Final Four team. The whole offense revolves around dumping it down to a Lopez and watching as good things happen. They either score, draw a double and pass to the open man, get fouled or miss and one of the kamikaze glass-crashers from the perimeter gets a put-back. The thing about Brook is that he is still really unpolished as a scorer and yet catching the ball and immediately turning and shooting, no matter how many defenders are on him, is enough to score 20 a game because of his amazing touch and skill. The Cougars don't have the athleticism on the inside to stop these two guys (Robin is vastly improved on the offensive end), which is probably why the Cardinal swept Wazzou in two close games this year. But, I still question if Stanford's perimeter players can provide enough scoring and open shotmaking for the Cardinal to beat really good teams, even if the Lopez twins go off. And against a tenacious Cougar perimeter D, buckets will be hard to come by. It's really tough to beat a team of Washington State's caliber three times in a season. This will be a one or two possession game.
The Pick: Washington State

Championship Week Record: 11-2
Overall Record: 66-46-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Wednesday's Picks: Northeast and Big Sky Championships

This is not Northern Arizona's mascot... but, somehow it's close.

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: Well, for awhile there it looked like I had jinxed Butler the same way I did Gonzaga by picking against them, but thankfully they kept the Bubble in tact by holding against Cleveland State and pulling away to cover the 8.5 point spread. (Of course with Syracuse losing today, I really shouldn't care about the Bubble anymore). It broke up my perfect Championship Week streak, but whatever, it's worth the Earth returning to its axis. I also lost the Oral Roberts-Ooey Pooey pick, with ORU (-3) looking like a solid first-round upset pick ("Indiana Gets a Bitter Taste From Oral" will rule blogpost titles). Western Kentucky blew out Middle Tennessee State, as I suspected, as the Hilltoppers somehow are in the NCAAs with South Alabama in trouble.

Northeast, Mount St. Mary's at Sacred Heart (-2)- I'm not going to pretend to know anything about these teams besides what's on paper. It's the No. 3 vs. No. 4 seeds in the league after both teams knocked off Wagner and Robert Morris respectively in the semis. The winner will be a No. 16 seed or even play-in game participant. The game is at Sacred Heart, which won the only regular season meeting on the Mountaineers home court. It looks like there will be a pretty good battle at point between MSM's Jeremy Goode and Sacred Heart's Drew Shubik, who are 2 and 3 in the league in assists. In the teams' only brushes with decent teams, Sacred Heart lost to both Providence and Boston College by five this year while MSM actually beat Winthrop, lost to Oregon by eight and were destroyed by Oklahoma. Both teams play pretty quick so it shouldn't be all bad. I'll go for the Mountaineers due to beating an actual tournament team before.
The Pick: Mount St. Mary's

Big Sky, Northern Arizona at Portland State (-4.5)- Portland State earned the right to host this game by winning the regular season fairly easily. Arizona State placed second, but was swept by the Vikings in the regular season. It would appear the winner gets the right to be hammered by UCLA, but PSU actually played the Bruins this season, so they can't be matched up with them. The Vikings lost that game by 21 but held UCLA to 69 points, so that's something I suppose. They are also one of the better three-point shooting teams in the country, with 10 players having hit at least 10 this season. The Lumberjacks (real nickname) shoot it well too, but without nearly as many attempts and have beaten Western Kentucky this season, played Arizona tough and have Kyle Landry, the league's second leading scorer and third leading rebounder. Landry still finished behind PSU's Jeremiah Dominguez for POY however. The transfer guard is averaging 20 over the last four. I'll take the home team in this one and not give a shit if I'm right.
The Pick: Portland State

Championship Week Record: 9-2
Overall Record: 64-46-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Tuesday's Picks: Summit, Horizon and Sun Belt Championships

Your "I Bet I Could Beat AJ Graves In A Fight," Picture of the Day

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: I suppose it's fun and all that I ran my Championship Week record to 8-0 last night, but it's NOT fun what South Alabama and Gonzaga so carelessly did to the Bubble. San Diego not only covered the 7.5 points they were getting, but they beat down the Zags, completely stifling (and by "stifling," I mean, "letting Josh Heytvelt touch the ball") and stole a bid from the Bubble (South Alabama lost to Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt semis, which I didn't pick correctly and thus, infuriates me more). Anyway, that was annoying, but good for the Toreros or whatever. In the other three contests, George Mason (-8.5) covered by a half point, tempting the Committee to make them a No. 11 again to force millions of idiots to pick them to go to the Final Four (they can win A game, but let's be realistic). Davidson (-17) missed covering by one (yea, I got pretty lucky) and Siena destroyed Rider (although I still want my Sixers to take a long look at Jason Thompson this year), and appears to be a very dangerous No. 13 or 14 seed.

Summit, IUPUI vs. Oral Roberts (-3)- I don't care what IUPUI stands for, but I know that "funny" analysts call it Ooey Pooey, which is something that bloggers are probably going to have a field day with if they get in. It's been that kind of season (not that ORAL Roberts will be a letdown). I like this year's ORU team, although not as much as the Caleb Green/Ken Tutt editions. It has beaten Oklahoma State on the road and hung with some other major conference teams. In the BracketBusters the Eagles lost to Creighton but still impressed. The Robert Jarvis/Moses Ehambe is a worthy replacement I suppose, and I like point guard Adam Liberty too. As for Ooey Pooey, I got nothing on them. The Jags have a more potent offensive attack and are led by George Hill, who is the POY in the league and has carried them in this tourney. Ooey Pooey is the only team that was able to challenge ORU this year and the two game split in the regular season was decided by four points total. So it should be a good one. Both teams play pretty slow but I am going to have trouble believing ORU can slow down one of the more efficient offenses in the country, even if I haven't seen the Jags play. (Seriously, look at these offensive numbers.)
The Pick: Ooey Pooey

Sun Belt, Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky (-8.5)- The irony of South Alabama's win is that even though it gave the Hilltoppers a better shot at an auto bid, it basically wiped out their at-large hopes. A loss to South Alabama in the finals would have been forgivable, but a loss to Middle Tennessee State is not for a team on such perilous grounds. The Blue Raiders (real nickname) are very weird. A .500 regular season team and No. 4 seed in the conference, they have beaten South Alabama twice this season... but lost to Tennessee by 69. Conversely, WKU lost to Tennessee by six. So I have no idea what the hell to think. The Hilltoppers are led by league POY and 20-point scorer Courtney Lee, who also happens to be one of the better players in all of mid-major basketball, and have swept MTSU this year, winning by 11 and five. The Blue Raiders (why are they blue?!?) have a more balanced attack with four players averaging 9+ points and 4+ rebounds per game. By the looks of them, they are a pretty run of the mill mediocre mid-major team, which should be problematic because WKU is not.
The Pick: Western Kentucky

Horizon, Cleveland State at Butler (-9.5)- OK, I have to tread lightly here. First, Butler cannot lose this game. Simply cannot. It will destroy the already atrociously murky Bubble and cause tomorrow's Syracuse game vs. Villanova to be perhaps the most stressful of my life. Now, this is basically the same situation as the San Diego/Gonzaga game last night (except the higher seed is the home team), so I have to be careful about repeating my own jinx and taking Cleveland State. But whereas Gonzaga is some kind of new school mid-major that eschewed hustle, passing and shooting for All Americans, stoners and athletes, Butler is still a mid-major in appearance playing on level with the big boys. Butler, and especially its fans at Hinkel, know that there is more to a season than Sweet 16 runs. They want this conference and won't let the Vikings, who earned a split with the Bulldogs this year (both decided by five or less) and are the No. 2 seed, take the Horizon League that Butler still holds so dear.... At least that's what I'm telling myself. This game should be an all-out slugfest in a great atmosphere. Both teams play great defense and have some really outstanding, exciting players (Mike Green and AJ Graves on Butler; J'Nathan (real first name) Bullock and Cedric Jackson on Cleveland State). But I think Butler's shooting (37.6 from three) is too big an advantage over the Vikings (31.3 percent) in a game where knocking down the few open shots available is key. The line is set very well and I think Butler wins but Cleveland State sneaks in under the line, jinx be damned
The Pick: Cleveland State

Championship Week Record: 8-0
Overall Record: 63-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Monday's Picks: CAA, MAAC, West Coast and Southern Conference Championships

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: If Illinois State had just hung tough with Drake and lost by like 12 or so, the Redbirds would probably still feel pretty safe about getting an at-large bid. But instead, in a performance that probably earned the Bulldogs thousands of Sweet 16 trips in brackets across the country (and was one of the most efficient beatdowns I've seen this year), Illinois State lost by 30 to Drake (-2.5) and is suddenly a conference runner-up that got three shots at its league champion and blew them all. I know margin of victory isn't supposed to be a big deal but when you are barely every on TV and need to impress a selection committee, losing by 30 must leave a bad taste. On the other hand, when Love The Drake references start flying around your office in a couple weeks because of that game, don't forget who loved the Drake way back in mid-January. That was an incredible performance yesterday.

Metro-Atlantic, Rider vs. Siena (-3)- I'm getting the sense that Vegas has no idea how to handicap some of these conference tourney games. I suppose there is no reason to put too much time into it because anyone betting on the MAAC final will probably be dead in a few months anyway. I swear every game I've seen has been a 2.5 spread. Anyway these are the top two teams in the league and both are much better than your usual MAAC champ. Whichever team wins is going to scare some No. 3 seed in a couple weeks. Initially this looked like it would be a very high-scoring, very fast-paced game between two teams with very good athletes, but it might be toned down a bit with this being the third game in three nights and both teams sporting short benches. This one is worth watching for no other reason that Rider's Jason Thompson, a 7-footer that will be in the NBA soon. In the semis he played every minute, dropping 32 and 18 against Marist (he's average 20 and 12 on the year). The Saints lack the size to keep Thompson in check but have a three-headed monster of mismatches elsewhere. Edwin Ubiles, Kenny Hasbrouck and Alex Franklin are as good of a Big Three in mid-major basketball and lead a very efficient, very skilled offense that has won at Stanford this season. The teams split two regular season meetings, winning on each others courts and I think Thompson will go off. But you win these type of games by making the least mistakes and the surehanded Saints, will have their three stars trump Rider's one NBAer.
The Pick: Siena

CAA, William and Mary vs. George Mason (-8.5)- As someone who "covered" the CAA in college, there were a range of reactions to yesterday's outstanding semifinals. First, VCU is again the league's best shot at a deep tourney run and it was a shame to see them lose yesterday and probably get left out of the Dance. But, for a team like William and Mary, which has done such a great job of rebuilding a long-struggling program, to have a chance at March Madness is pretty neat as well. And of course, for George Mason to get another crack at the Tournament, especially for Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell, two outstanding seniors that have been to the Final Four, is all well and good too. Not sure who I'll be rooting for but I might curl up with a pint of Haagen Daaz to suppress all my emotions for this one. Anyway, this is the fourth game in four days for the Tribe and it just so happens to be against one of the most tourney-tested teams in mid-major basketball. I wouldn't bet against George Mason as a favorite in Richmond if Tony Skinn was checking their jockstraps before the game (he is not a gentle person when it comes to that region). I actually like how W & M matches up with the Patriots, especially with the Thomas v. Laimis Kuselius match-up up front, but I just don't see how they have the energy to keep this one close against a great George Mason team with a rabid fanbase.
The Pick: George Mason

Southern Conference, Elon vs. Davidson (-17)- Well everyone expected Davidson to be here, with its now 22 conference wins this year, but the No. 7 seed Phoenix, who have caught fire and won three straight nights in Charleston are a big surprise. It's a welcome surprise for Bubble teams around the country who need Davidson to make sure the SoCon is a one-bid league. If the Wildcats were to somehow lose, they would right there with Illinois State and VCU as the most perilous of Bubble teams. The large spread indicates that shouldn't be an issue. But covering might be. Davidson only beat Elon by 10 at home this year and by two on the road. The Phoenix held the Cats to its second and seventh lowest offensive efficiency ratings of the year, with the other five lowest coming to Duke, UCLA, UNC, Charlotte and NC State. Eighth-grader Stephen Curry had 36 in the home meeting but just 15 when going on the road against Elon. The Phoenix play a lot of guys, despite being in the bottom 50 teams in D-I in tempo. When you see them you will expect a sharpshooting squad but they are among the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation. Their "strength" is down low with two 6-8 forwards, one of which, Ola Atoyebi, is their leading scorer and rebounder. Davidson will win pretty easily and I'm gonna be watching this next game, but don't think Elon gets completely embarrassed. Plus, Elon has God, and a pugnacious one at that, on its side.
The Pick: Elon

West Coast, Gonzaga (-7.5) at San Diego- I tried to stay up for the St. Mary's-San Diego game last night but instead chose sleep and a functional day when I saw the Gaels up about 15 in the second half. When I awoke to see the Toreros had come back and won in double-overtime, in what sounds like it was an incredible game (34 combined points in second OT), I cursed those extra couple hours of sleep. If the Bulldogs win, it will be their fifth straight auto-bid and will cement a two-bid league. If San Diego wins, the West Coast gets an unprecedented three teams and snatches a bid from that mass of excrement that is this year's Bubble. This is probably an understatement, but that atmosphere is going to be batshit crazy tonight. As someone who gets an unusual, probably unhealthy enjoyment out of those late-night WCC games, the atmosphere tonight should be overwhelming. Plus, the game will be played in the Jenny Craig Pavilion, which means the fans will likely be hungry, cranky and eager to take out their issues of self-worth on an anonymous opponent. The Zags are coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the year in beating Santa Clara by four last night but its last loss to San Diego came eight years ago... in the West Coast Conference championship... in San Diego. I don't think history will repeat itself, but I think it will be close.
The Pick: San Diego

Championship Week Record: 4-0
Overall Record: 59-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Sunday's Pick: Missouri Valley Championship

I assure you, that is The Drake

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: Michael Jenkins tried his best to deflect some of the attention from that giant person that UNC Asheville (-2.5) plugged in the middle by scoring almost as much (33) as the entire Asheville team (48). The Eagles won by 18 but it was still a very entertaining with great defense, good athletes and of course, Kenny George (who, somehow, is a great passer with a nice shooting touch; he just doesn't rebound or dunk, which are widely considered things a 7-8 person should be able to do). Austin Peay (-3) and Belmont (-6) both rolled to get into the Big Dance, just as I had expected.

Missouri Valley, Illinois State vs. Drake (-2.5)- This is the match-up everyone, especially members of Bubble teams across the country, wanted. The Valley will get its two bids no matter what and the Syracuses and New Mexicos of the world can breath easier (that is, if being a completely mediocre team allows one to breath easy). That's not to say this game is meaningless, winning this conference is an incredible feat any year and to win the regular season AND tournament, like Drake has a chance to do, would be nuts (especially for a team picked to finish ninth in the preseason). Plus, the Bulldogs, who hopefully have proved they are for real by now, might be able to get a No. 4 or 5 seed with a win, which would be their third over Illinois State this year. This is going to be a typical Valley final with a slowed down, grind-it-out, make your threes, take care of the ball, awake your fans with the occasional dunk from Josh Young feel to it. It will be a battle of the super sophs Young for Drake and Osiris Eldridge, which is not a character in the Lion King, for the Redbirds. But I think this one, in a game where the ball pressure and intensity will be sky high, is going to come down to who can avoid turnovers and not give the other easy baskets. Therefore.... GOT TO LOOOOVVVVVVVEEEEEE THE DRAKE.
The Pick: Drake

Championship Week Record: 3-0
Overall Record: 58-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Saturday's Picks: Big South, Ohio Valley and Atlantic Sun Championship Games

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

OK, the regular season is done, but that doesn't mean the being wrong Picks are. I finished with a 55-44-4 record, which I suppose is respectable. For Championship Week I will pick every Conference Championship and also the semifinals for the BCS leagues. Today we've got three league title games, all pretty solid leagues, with one game, Winthrop vs. UNC Asheville, that is going to start in about 15 minutes (I still haven't made it out of bed) and should be very entertaining. (Insert Let The Madness Begin comment here).

Big South, Winthrop at UNC Asheville (-2.5)- There is a reason for the "at" in the match-up, the game is on Asheville's home court. This should be a really great game. Winthrop has dominated the league lately, but the Bulldogs won the regular season title, beating the Eagles twice. If Asheville loses at home after beating the Big South overlord twice already and can't snap the Eagles three-year championship streak, well let's just say it would suck to be in Asheville today (especially when you are 7-8 like Kenny George). For some reason, Kenny George is top search term that leads people to this here blog, even though I only wrote about him once and it was for getting dunked on. Perhaps it says something about my writing (or my readers) that people only come here to see an inhumanly large man get embarassed on video but I'll choose to believe otherwise. As goofy as the guy is, he is an incredibly effective at deterring offenses. You basically can't drive into the lane without a kick-out or a clever dump-off in mind and expect to score. So Winthrop, which is a decent three-point shooting team at 37 percent is going to need a hot night from star guards Chris Gaynor and Michael Jenkins. Look, these two teams know each other so well, strategy can be thrown out the window. The winner is going to be who can knock down shots and get after each other defensively. I think Winthrop will do that; they aren't ready to give up this league just yet, even if they have to climb eight feet in the air to get it.

Ohio Valley, Tennessee State vs. Austin Peay (-3)- This one is being played in Nashville but don't think that gives Tennessee State any advantage. The Tigers made the OVC Finals as a No. 6 seed and are playing a team that is clearly the class of the conference, an Austin Peay team that went 16-4, won the league by three games and has beaten Texas Tech this year. That being said, the previous two meetings this year were split, with the home team winning each one by four or less. The Governors' strength is their frantic defense that tries to force a ton of turnovers (they are first in the nation in steal percentage) but in both games this season Tennessee State found a way to take care of the ball. Both teams have a pretty balanced attack although State's Bruce Price is probably the player most worth watching. The Tigers like to push the pace and its Price that both runs the show and jacks up the shots. Austin Peay has one of the better defensive guards in the league, the 5-9 Derek Wright, but will probably put one of their bigger wings on Price. This should be an entertaining up and down game, that will be close than the seeds indicate, but I don't see Tennessee State's run continuing.
The Pick: Austin Peay

Atlantic Sun, Jacksonville vs. Belmont (-6)- This league was the early season darling after Gardner Webb beat Kentucky, Mercer beat USC and Belmont took down Cincinnati. But it's likely this game is for a No. 14 or 15 seed, albeit a dangerous one. Belmont has owned Jacksonville recently, winning the last five meetings. The Bruins have also beaten Alabama this year and took Wright State to overtime. They run a fast-paced balanced game that includes an incredible amount of threes. They are No. 7 in the country in three-pointer/two-pointer ratio, third in three-point attempts and first in made threes. And reaching that number is a largely team effort (now you can see why Belmont would be a dangerous 14 seed). The Dolphins (real nickname) are the No. 2 seed despite having an eight-game losing streak in the non-conference slate that included losses to UAB, Michigan State, Georgetown and South Alabama. They play a much slower game and shoot very few threes so this should be a real clash of styles. Jacksonville does defend pretty well, especially beyond the arc, but look for Belmont's pace to force the Dolphins into turnovers, bad shots and cans of tuna.
/sorry
The Pick: Belmont

Championship Week Record: 0-0
Overall Record: 55-44-4
Regular Season Record: 55-44-4

ACC: 6-10
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-6-1
Big Ten: 8-7
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 2-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Thursday's Picks: UConn vs. Providence; Clemson vs. Georgia Tech; Michigan State vs. Illinois; Xavier vs. St. Joseph's

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Alright, so things should clear up in due time and this blog will soon consist of more than just game predictions and rushed analysis during the sport's most crucial time. Consider yourself forewarned.

Also, this is the last night of regular season picks, but it won't be the end of me being prognosticative. For Championship Week I will be picking every conference championship game, ATS of course, for the non-major conferences and the semifinals and beyond of each of the six BCS conferences. So, be excited or something.

Last Night: Duke murdered Virginia which wasn't surprising to anyone outside of Las Vegas apparently, because the line was only six points. I got that one. Syracuse (-2.5) beat Seton Hall pretty handily, which I choose to believe keeps its tourney hopes alive. I avoided a jinx there. Texas A & M somehow beat another basketball team on the road, taking down Baylor (-1.5), earning the Aggies the right to be blown out by a No. 7 seed in the NCAAs.

Connecticut (-5) at Providence- Even though it's March, the ESPN Thursday night games continue to suck. Thank God the Pac-10 (specifically, UCLA v. Stanford) plays on Thursdays, even if it's broadcasted on Al Jazeera. Anyway, the Huskies have won 12 of 13, a streak that began after somehow losing to the Friars in Storrs. After that game Providence lost nine of 11 so clearly both teams went their separate ways. Let's call it a one night stand. One of the few things Providence can do well is shoot from the outside, which tends to give the Huskies problems, but I don't see how the Friars can stop UConn's many athletes on the offensive end. It won't be a blowout but UConn will cover.
The Pick: Connecticut

Clemson (-3) at Georgia Tech- Well this should suck. DO NOT WATCH THIS GAME. Even though a great deal of points will be scored, most of them will be by Clemson. The Jackets have lost six of seven, although most of those games were on the road, where they are even worse than their usual level of suckiness. The Tigers are an underrated team but can ill afford to struggle against the ACC underlings down the stretch if they want a favorable seed (like a No. 5 or 6). So I advise them to blow out Georgia Tech and with their considerable size advantage, they should.
The Pick: Clemson

Michigan State (-2.5) at Illinois- Another enticingly low line for a road favorite; I've got to think all three of these teams can't cover. The Spartans have been wildly consistent, although consistently bad on the road, and coming off a 30-point drubbing of Indiana, are due for a stinker. Illinois plays pretty solid defense and Michigan State cannot score any points when opponents choose to play defense. Final Score: Illinois 28, Michigan State 26.
The Pick: Illinois

Xavier (-2) at St. Joseph's- The Hawks get their chance to redeem recent losses to St. Louis and Temple and maybe get into that Tournament everyone is so crazy about. This should be a pretty entertaining game with a raucous crowd and a desperate St. Joe's team. On the other hand, Xavier probably isn't all that interested in playing this one, seeing as how they have locked up the A-10 No. 1 seed and are probably settled into a No. 3 seed in the NCAAs. The Musketeers do have an 11-game winning streak going so they may actually try but I don't see how they get up to the energy level of the Hawks, which only lost by four at Xavier in early February.
The Pick: St. Joseph's

Last night's record: 2-1
JTom's overall record: 54-41-4

ACC: 6-9
Big 12: 6-10-2
Big East: 17-5-1
Big Ten: 8-6
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 1-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Wednesday's Picks: Duke vs. Virginia; Syracuse vs. Seton Hall (gulp); Texas A & M vs. Baylor

Oh Robbie Hummel, why couldn't you and your Boilermakers avoid making Ohio State seem relevant?

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Been busy again, so these will be brief and obviously are late. Not sure why the rest of the world doesn't stop for March basketball. Oh well, better late than never; just three days of regular season picks left.

Last Night: Ohio State (-1.5) got a really annoying home win over Purdue which probably boosts it into the NCAAs at least temporarily even though the Buckeyes are a terrible basketball team. So it goes with life on the 2008 Bubble (I picked Purdue, in case you couldn't tell). Miami of Ohio took the unfortunate strategy of missing all of its shots against Kent State (-5.5) and lost what was a close game for awhile by 11 (picked the Redhawks). And Mississippi pulled an Ohio State by getting a home win over a likely tournament team (Arkansas), faking people into thinking it is relevant (I picked Arkansas). So the first 0-3 night in awhile.
/falls back to Earth.

Duke (-6) at Virginia- I guess you could say Duke is struggling lately and the home team has won eight of the last nine in this series, but that line seems a bit low for this one. You could also say Duke will be looking ahead to Saturday's showdown with UNC... BUT Virginia is very bad and Duke won the first meeting this year by 22. The Cavs have won three out of four after losing about 25 straight games but I simply don't see how Duke doesn't cover six with the ACC regular season title still in the balance.
The Pick: Duke

Syracuse (-2.5) at Seton Hall- Ugh, I'm really not sure I want to pick this one after the heart-breaking losses my Orange have endure lately. If they think they still have an at-large chance, this is obviously a must must must win game and given the craptastic volatility of this year's Bubble, if Cuse can win the last two and get to 9-9 in conference, it should find a glimmer of daylight. There I go, talking myself into it again. Anyway, I'd hate to make a pick and jinx them in some way but I am a blogger, and a blogger of principle. If I pick one, I must pick them all. (I'm doomed.)
The Pick: Syracuse

Texas A & M at Baylor (-1.5)- This would generally be a pretty awful game, even though I'm starting to come around on Baylor and its guard bonanza, but now it's about as pure a Bubble game as you could ever see. Whichever team wins is probably pretty safely in, whichever loses gives itself a pretty stressful Big 12 Tournament. The last time these teams met, they played a considerable amount of overtimes, with Baylor inevitably winning. On paper the Aggies have the advantage, especially in the paint, but they have failed to score 60 in five straight games (four losses and only 37 points Saturday at Oklahoma) and are pretty terrible on the road. Baylor is going to run its ass off and I don't see how the Aggies can guard and/or score enough to pull it off.
The Pick: Baylor

Last night's record: 0-3
JTom's overall record: 52-40-4

ACC: 5-9
Big 12: 6-9-2
Big East: 16-5-1
Big Ten: 8-6
SEC: 5-4
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 1-3
SoCon: 1-0
MAC: 0-1
Non-Conf: 1-0

Tuesday's Picks: Purdue vs. Ohio State; Miami vs. Kent; Arkansas vs. Ole Miss

A partnership for the ages comes to its emotional end

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: Blowouts galore got me two wins, West Virginia and Gonzaga, and a very very very incorrect loss, Kansas (-19.5) winning by 58 FREAKING POINTS over Angola Texas Tech, which had just beaten Texas. I don't what this says about KU-Texas because my brain cannot comprehend how these events have occurred but I guess it's advantage-Kansas, regardless of all the good teams the Longhorns have beaten.

Purdue at Ohio State (-1.5)- One of the few things in life I can count on, is knowing that this year's Ohio State team is completely incapable of beating a good team. It helps me sleep at night, it keeps me warm on cold days, it makes life simpler. So even in a home game with ginormous Bubble implications, against a young team playing in a crazy atmosphere, I still don't see how the Buckeyes are favored. I suppose they are a team that can exploit Purdue's somewhat thin front line but I'm not exactly sure how the Ohio State backcourt will function against the Boilermakers' pressure. Maybe if some of the Buckeyes who never hit threes somehow start hitting them, they have a chance, but I don't think so. And if they do, well then I don't know where I'll turn.
The Pick: Purdue

Miami of Ohio at Kent State (-5.5)- Our second Point of Reference game for the Golden Flashes, after that BracketBusters match against St. Mary's that I doubt anyone actually saw. So I guess it's the first Point of Reference game for most. And by following that win over the Gaels with a terrible loss to Bowling Green, Kent State really needs a win to make their play a point of reference for March Madness and not the NIT. In the beginning of the year, I thought the Redhawks could be a mid-major sleeper with wins over Xavier, South Alabama and Mississippi State and narrow losses to USC, Dayton and Louisville, but the MAC play has been underwhelming. Miami plays really, really, really slow (334th out of 340) and has a knack for keeping games close against superior teams, but generally suffers from a lack of shotmaking. The good news for them is Kent is coming off about as bad a defensive performance as you will see from them (second highest defensive efficiency, 124.6, allowed this season to that Xavier win). Even though Kent State absolutely must win this game, I actually think Miami keeps it close and given the carnage going around for Bubble teams, could pull off the win.

Arkansas at Mississippi (-2)- This game has pretty big Bubble implications with Arkansas needing a win to secure a half-solid at-large case and Mississippi desperately needing a victory to join the discussion. I wish I could offer a thrilling analysis but I have not seen either squad this year. I'll give it a shot based on what I do know. Ole Miss has the bodies inside to give the Razorbacks some trouble on the boards and takes care of the ball well enough to offset the Arkansas pressure, but I'm not sure they have the shotmaking to outscore the Razorbacks (see how much you can come up with if you just know the personnel, the styles of play and have some help from KenPom?). I think it'll be a close game but Arkansas pulls it out and ends the Rebels season. (This one should be a really good indicator if I'm smart or my record is a result of blind luck... I'm not crossing my fingers for the former.)
The Pick: Arkansas

Last night's record: 2-1
JTom's overall record: 52-37-4

ACC: 5-9
Big 12: 6-9-2
Big East: 16-5-1
Big Ten: 8-5
SEC: 5-3
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 6-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 1-3
SoCon: 1-0
Non-Conf: 1-0

Monday's Picks: Pitt vs. West Virginia; Texas Tech vs. Kansas; Santa Clara vs. Gonzaga

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Week: As we enter the last week of regular season picks, I've somehow run this thing to 50-36-4, which I hear is pretty impressive or something. In case you are wondering, I haven't made anywhere close to the amount of money I should have with a record like that, which means I'd probably prefer a much worse record so I don't feel like I've wasted the one year where I actually, you know, know shit. Anyway, last week I went 3-1 on Thursday despite barely getting the picks in before 7, finishing the week at 10-3.

Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-.5.5)- Both teams are fortunate that the Bubble is as mind-numbingly weak as it is this year (the Panthers are also fortunate that Syracuse HANDED them that fucking game Saturday... I'm so over it, by the way), but whichever team loses, it can't feel all that comfortable about its positioning. Conversely, whichever team wins locks up a tourney spot for good. About a month ago, the Panthers handed WVU its second heart-breaking one-point loss and the Mountaineers have only beaten teams at the bottom of the league since. But this Pitt defense has really struggled lately and a patient offense that thrives on taking care of the ball and waiting for open looks is probably not going to cure what ails the Panthers. West Virginia punches its imaginary ticket and heads out to celebrate with some of them there tooth-ed girls.
The Pick: West Virginia

Texas Tech at Kansas (-19.5)- This line is pretty surprising given the Red Raiders takedown of Texas on Saturday. The win moves the Jayhawks back into a tie for the Big 12 lead and, more importantly, gives them a chance to destroy Tech and prove their superiority, which is probably why the line is that high. It also might be a bit lofty because in the Raiders last home game, they lost to Texas A & M by 44 freaking points. The Jayhawks might still have a hangover from the beatdown they put on the BeasWalks Saturday so although I think they will cruise, it'll be just below the number.
The Pick: Texas Tech
Santa Clara at Gonzaga (-14.5)- After getting a huge win over St. Mary's Saturday night to regain the WCC lead, this would be a perfect spot for a let-down game against a Santa Clara squad that took the Zags to OT last time they met. The Broncos are one of the slowest teams in the country and the key to them covering will be slowing Gonzaga down in front of a crowd that could either be completely jacked up given the chance to clinch the regular season crown or extremely hungover after the win over the nemesis Gaels. Santa Clara's strength is up front with big fat person John Bryant but the Zags have a number of bodies to throw at him. It will probably come down to the aforementioned pace and the Broncos three-point shooting which is pretty bad and should be even worse against a solid Zags arc defense.
The Pick: Gonzaga

Last week's record: 10-3
JTom's overall record: 50-36-4

ACC: 5-9
Big 12: 6-8-2
Big East: 15-5-1
Big Ten: 8-5
SEC: 5-3
Pac-10: 1-0
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 5-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 1-3
SoCon: 1-0
Non-Conf: 1-0

Craig's record: 15-17-2

Thursday's Picks: Notre Dame vs. Louisville; Some A-10 teams; Michigan State/Ron Burgundy vs. Wisconsin; USC vs. Arizona

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

I've been mad busy lately and wasn't going to do picks tonight, but then I saw how good three of the games are and had to weigh in. Plus I actually get a chance to pick a Pac-10 game, which is like finding a white whale. So let's bang these out.

Last night: Went 1-2 with Duke and Kansas not covering against pretty shitty opponents and Marquette drubbing DePaul for my lone win because I get every Big East game right always.

Notre Dame at Louisville (-8)- Really great and outstanding match-up. Vegas looks to finally be buying into the Cardinals with a line that high (wonder what they were waiting for). The Irish rely way too much on three, mainly because they have so many white players. Louisville is 15th in the country in three-point defense. As much as Louisville's athleticism should cause fits for Notre Dame, I just don't see this game not being close. I'll take ND, hate myself and expect a late, meaningless basket to either win it or lose it for me.
The Pick: Notre Dame

St. Louis at St. Joseph's (-12)- Battle of two extremely ugly coaches, but at least one keeps his pants on. It's a must-win for the Hawks and if they push the tempo to "slothlike," it should totally through St. Louis, which is used to playing a "glacierlike" tempo, off its game. DO NOT WATCH THIS GAME.
The Pick: St. Joseph's

Michigan State at Wisconsin (-5.5)- The Spartans haven't beaten a good team in over a month but somehow, if they win tonight, will be considered for a No. 3 or 4 seed. Such is the Year of Mediocrity. The home team has won the last eight in this series and it should continue. The Badgers play great perimeter defense and when Kalin Lucas and Drew Neitzel can't score or create, the Spartans offense becomes Northwesternian. Even if they can find some open shots, this year's Spartans team doesn't make nearly enough to challenge the Badgers at home.
The Pick: Wisconsin

USC at Arizona (-5.5)- What the hell is going on? A Pac-10 game on ESPN? Did they let Fox Sports Net borrow Mike and Mike for a week or something in order to get this? (If so, FSN got ripped off.) Whatever happened, I am happy to get an actual live game from the best conference in the country instead of the weird tape delays and picked-up-already-in-progress games Comcast airs at odd hours of the night. Anyway, the match-up between Jerryd Bayless and OJ Mayo should be spectacular. In the first meeting, Mayo played much better but Arizona won. Both teams are safely in the tournament but a win for either could be crucial in seeding. The defense played in this game will be among the best you see this season, even though both teams don't force a lot of turnovers. The key match-up should be down low with Jordan Hill trying to stay out of foul trouble going against Taj Gibson and Davon Jefferson. Honestly, this game will be a slugfest and probably be decided on how tight the refs are calling it. Look for a one-possession game. I'm excited in my pants for this one.
/alienates readership
The Pick: USC

Last night's record: 1-2
JTom's overall record: 47-35-4

ACC: 5-9
Big 12: 6-8-2
Big East: 14-5-1
Big Ten: 7-5
SEC: 5-3
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 5-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 1-2
SoCon: 1-0
Non-Conf: 1-0

Craig's record: 15-17-2

Wednesday's Picks: Kansas vs. Iowa State, Georgia Tech vs. Duke, West Virginia vs. DePaul

Bruce Pearl, miming how he usually greets Erin Andrews.

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last Night: First, I had another 3-0 night, which runs my streak to seven straight, which puts me 13 over .500 this year, which is weird. Seeing as how I've bet money on very few games this year, this accomplishes nothing besides setting a personal standard the gods of odds will surely make me pay for. I suppose for those of you looking for a quick way to not lose your family/domicile, following my picks may be a decent idea, though. (Note: I cannot guarantee the preservation of your belongings/self-worth).

Anyway, the games last night were pretty entertaining, especially that Vandy-Tennessee madness. I knew the Dores could shoot well enough at home to make Tennessee's helter skelter style pay, I just didn't think one person, Shan Foster, would single-handedly carry them. Not only did he outshoot Chris Lofton on a good night, he took equally as audacious long-range hoists as the quick-triggered Lofton; not an easy feat. I was really impressed with Vandy's response to blowing that early lead against a team as smothering as Tennessee. With the exception of a two and a half week stretch in January where the Dores went 1-4, they are undefeated and probably won't be sneaking up on anyone in March as in years past. The Vols (-2) had another atrocious shooting night which makes me wonder if they are better than Memphis or just a clone of Memphis that had a better Saturday night. The latter (which I still don't think is true) would be concerning for their tourney hopes. It's not at all a bad loss for Tennessee but it proves what we all probably knew already; they aren't the best team in the country. Now it's highly possible there is no best team in the country, just a "least bad one," but whatever. Oh and Indiana (-8) beat Ohio State (but didn't cover) in front of a crowd that didn't seem to care about basketball so much. And Southern Illinois got a win at Bradley (-1.5), earning them a legitimate spot on that prestigious Bubble.*
*Bubble not, in fact, prestigious

Kansas (-11.5) at Iowa State- The Jayhawks are beginning to worry me a bit so this game suddenly conjures up a smidgen of interest, just to make sure they mercilessly embarrass the Cyclones as they should. I expected a bit more from Iowa State, which has lost seven of its last nine, this season due mostly to that great frontcourt of Jiri Hubalek, Wesley Johnson and Craig Brackins. But besides pushing Texas to overtime a couple weeks ago, the Cyclones have had a completely uneventful season. That's not to say that frontcourt doesn't have a bright future but that they just have absolutely atrocious perimeter play. Unfortunately for their chances tonight, the Jayhawks have an incredibly fearsome backcourt that will apply pants-pooping pressure for 40 minutes. Plus, they just traveled to almost equally as incompetent Oklahoma State Saturday and lost, so they might have a minor interest in reasserting their road dominance over the Big 12 underbelly and not letting Texas get that No. 1 seed without a fight. Final score: Kansas 176, Iowa State 21
The Pick: Kansas

Georgia Tech at Duke (-15.5)- Duke is in a similar position to Kansas, having recently turned in some lackluster performances against inferior road opponents. But the Blue Devils get to exact their revenge on their league's also-rans at home, which is why Vegas anticipates an even more savage beat down. The Jackets have lost five of six overall and in this series and no longer appear to be the potential giant-killer they nearly were against North Carolina earlier this season. This game won't be close but it should be a frantic track meet with a lot of great athletes so it could be entertaining. The problem for Georgia Tech is that with all those possessions, its opponent gets ample opportunities to attack the Jackets stat-padding defense which is a magical elixir that makes even the most devastating shooting slumps disappear. And for a Duke team shooting just 43 percent in its last five and a student section likely in an unrelated type of slump, lots of points will be welcome.
The Pick: Duke

West Virginia (-4.5) at DePaul- Once a Big East upstart running with the likes of The Dragonslayer That Is Cincinnati, DePaul has fallen on hard times lately, losing seven of its last eight. West Virginia, thanks to two one-point heartbreakers to Pitt and Georgetown, is in desperate need of a half-decent win, which hasn't gotten one in about six weeks when it beat Syracuse. Given the utter mediocrity of this year's Bubble I don't think the Mountaineers are in danger, but losing to DePaul would be a great way to endanger themselves. Both teams have good athletes but West Virginia uses them a whole lot better, especially on defense. Opponents are shooting 50 percent against the Blue Demons in the last five games and have averaged better than a point per possession in the last six (Note: That is bad.). It wouldn't shock me if DePaul pulled the upset, but then again it wouldn't shock me if West Virginia scored 39 points... you know, because that actually happened.
/Strip club joke
The Pick: West Virginia

Last night's record: 3-0
JTom's overall record: 46-33-4

ACC: 5-8
Big 12: 6-7-2
Big East: 13-5-1
Big Ten: 7-5
SEC: 5-3
Missouri Valley: 2-0
West Coast: 5-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 1-2
SoCon: 1-0
Non-Conf: 1-0

Craig's record: 15-17-2

Tuesday's Picks

Because the best way to feign actual knowledge on a subject is an accurate prediction, I introduce The Picks. Every weekday, Monday-Thursday (hopefully) I will pick the televised games of the night, against the spread of course, and follow the results to see if I actually know something about basketball. The results should be both entertaining (for readers) and soul-crushing (for me). And if I'm wrong, I'll just do what all the TV "experts" do: never bring it up again and avoid all accountability. And since I won't be betting actual money (that often), I win every time!

I'll also be occasionally picking against one of my roommates, Craig, so we can have a rational method of settling all disputes involving rent, household matters, etc.

Last night: I was at the Villanova-Marquette (-2) game last night which served as a 40-minute microcosm for most Philadelphia sports seasons. The Cats got the crowd's hopes up with a great first half and suddenly their NCAA Tourney hopes had serious life. But just as the crowd reached its peak of excitement, they quickly squandered their lead in the second half, fell behind by double-digits themselves, gave up 53 points in the half and caused a pretty large fight to break out a few rows behind me (there has been a fight at 100 percent of the Villanova games I have attended in my life). Suddenly the season was over, the Cats once again hated... well at least until the next game. Didn't get a chance to see the Texas-KSU game but it was nice to see Vegas' absurd line in favor of the Wildcats (-3.5) proven incorrect. And the Zags (-15), despite trailing by two at halftime to the mighty Portland Pilots, decided to outscore them by 24 in the second half, giving me a 3-0 night.
/waiting for other shoe to drop

Ohio State at Indiana (-8)- Given the Hoosiers' post-SampsGate bedshitting and near catastrophe at Northwestern Saturday, Vegas must be pretty confident in Dan Dakich's conflict resolution skills for this line to be at 8. Even though the Buckeyes have lost four of six, there is going to be some serious pressure on the Hoosiers tonight in front of the home crowd. The fans will be supportive at first but if Indiana struggles at all in the first half, they will turn on those guys like they kicked their best cow. That's why this is a tough one to pick because it's the rare game where a team's mental state will probably decide the game and despite my stellar picking record this year, it is not a result of psychic ability. I think Indiana wins but won't cover.
The Pick: Ohio State

Southern Illinois at Bradley (-1.5)- Don't look now but the Salukis, the preseason mid-major darling, have a slim chance at salvaging their at-large hopes, sneaking into the First 8 Out in Joe "The Ladies Man" Lunardi's latest bracket. Granted if they can't get the auto-bid, they need to win out until the Valley final and get a lot of help but, hey, it's something to play for. Unfortunately that run starts at Bradley tonight, which is not an easy place to win. The home team has won the last seven meetings between the two squads and only two of those have been decided by 10 or less. Bradley has had a weird season, at one point losing seven of eight but is currently on a 9-2 run to get back to a reasonable conference tourney seed. But this SIU team was feared in the preseason for a reason and its struggles aren't because of a lack of toughness or intensity. If the Salukis really believe they have a chance at the postseason and that this is a must-win, they'll find a way to get it.
The Pick: Southern Illinois

Tennessee (-2) at Vanderbilt- Perfect spot for a let-down game for the Vols and unfortunately Vegas is fully aware of that. The first meeting was a blowout in Tennessee's favor but I don't see how a terrifyingly rabid Vandy crowd is going to let that happen tonight. AJ Ogilvy and Shan Foster were both pretty awful in that first match-up but have turned things around of late. That being said, I still think Tennessee matches up with those two guys better than anyone in the SEC with The Smith Named Tyler on Foster and Chism on Ogilvy. The Vols are a very good team and deserving of the No. 1 ranking; but they are not the best team in the country. It's no secret that if you make open shots and take care of the ball, Tennessee is beatable. In an up-and-down game just like Saturday night, I think Vandy can make the shots Memphis didn't; it's the turnovers I'm worried about. So, when in doubt you have to look for a hidden factor to decide the game and I am going to the Erin Andrews Factor. Surely with EA not in attendance, Bruce Pearl's sexual frustration will completely disrupt his ability to coach, causing him to run a four corners offense to try and run out the clock and get home to the warm comfort of this:

The Pick: Vanderbilt

Last night's record: 3-0
JTom's overall record: 43-33-4

ACC: 5-8
Big 12: 6-7-2
Big East: 13-5-1
Big Ten: 6-5
SEC: 4-3
Missouri Valley: 1-0
West Coast: 5-1
Big West: 0-1
CAA: 0-1
Horizon: 0-0-1
A-10: 1-2
SoCon: 1-0
Non-Conf: 1-0

Craig's record: 15-17-2